Mid-Season Review: Part 2

The Inscrutable Drama Kings took offense at being called the weaker division and have really pulled themselves together over the last few weeks to boast the top two teams in the league again. There's been a change at the top as the Dirty Birds are losing some steam and the Tiiite End Jammers are making quite a resurgence this year. Let's start at the top.

Tiiite End Jammers (5-3)
Making a case for the runaway best team this year, the Jammers are slightly underrated as they've faced the toughest schedule in the league and still have the best record and most points scored. Look at this. The Jammers have gone over the century mark six times already (five in a row and counting) and have ripped off four straight wins. Their losses have come when scoring 109, 95, and 107. They finished 5-8 last year but that was after a weak 1-7 start. This time around, Lei's team is making their case to become another repeat champion. Strangely, if they pull it off, it will be Buffy-Dirty Birds-Jammers winning in the exact same order yet again. Deja vu?

The Jammers are being powered behind mid-season MVP Clinton Portis and a very deep collection of receivers in Lee Evans, Dwayne Bowe, Marvin Harrison, and Chris Chambers. The recent injury to Tony Romo is a cause for concern but he'll be back in two weeks and for now, Matt Schaub is more than serviceable. Heck, Romo may have to play his way into the lineup as Schaub has been outstanding recently. The combined 2nd RB attack of Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes has yet to really gain traction but with Addai now injured, it's probably better for Rhodes to get most of the work.

Unless something dramatic happens, we don't see the Jammers conceding much ground at the top.

Dirty Birds (5-3)
Things were looking so much better for the Birds two weeks ago when they were 5-1 and sky high. Two losses later and they've gone into slight panic mode. Granted, one of those losses was a 133-127 shootout with the Jammers, but last week's poor showing against the moribund Fat Jubas wasn't very impressive. So what's going on exactly?

Well, the Birds are having a bit of a problem finding their passing game. Larry Fitzgerald and Wes Welker have been steady but Jay Cutler and Braylon Edwards have been a bit weak. Cutler started the season red hot but has now cooled off and Braylon started the season ice cold, had one outstanding week, and decided to start dropping balls again. The good news is that Steven Jackson broke out recently and Adrian Peterson has had three 20+ games. If Cutler can pick up his game and Edwards heads to the bench (or picks it up), the Birds are still a strong contender.

Chunky Monkeys (4-4)
Don't look now but the Monkeys are slowly creeping back into the picture. After suffering through the worst start in franchise history, Evan's team is on a bit of a roll with two victories and two century games in a row. In fact, they took a wild 138-120 shootout this past week against perpetual nemesis Buffy and that had to feel good. There's been a lot of talk about LaDainian Tomlinson's decline but that's been all hogwash as he looks primed for a huge second half.

The running game would probably be just fine without LDT if it came to it, behind stellar rookies Matt Forte and Chris Johnson. All that buzz about the Monkeys losing their two back attack? Well how about a three back attack? They have two top five backs in LDT and Matt Forte and Chris Johnson is currently ranked at #9 and climbing the charts. Someone break out the wishbone!

QB Peyton Manning is in fine form again and he's finding the now healthy Anquan Boldin to be an excellent target. The recent slump of Terrell Owens is a concern but once Romo gets back, TO will be just fine. Chad Johnson might be done for (especially with Carson Palmer out) but Charger Vincent Jackson has had three straight good games so that third receiver slot is in good hands. The Monkeys are only one game back after suffering through "the worst." Uh-oh.

Buffy (3-5)
It's been a rough go of it for Buffy this year. After an encouraging 103-93 win in WK6, they've been slammed by two 130+ opponents and a pair of losses, dropping them out of the playoff picture for a moment. Then again, they've taken two big uppercuts and are still standing. It can't hurt that their power trio of Philip Rivers, Marion Barber, and Roddy White are the number one QB, number two RB, and number one WR respectively. If you want to get real fancy, Antonio Gates is the second ranked TE also.

There's certainly a case for Roger's team to be one of the best teams this year, even if they're suffering from a a bit of depth issues. No clear number two back has been found to complement Barber and Buffy's best bet might be sticking with steady but unspectacular Jamal Lewis until Willie Parker returns from injury. And as for venerable Buffy stalwart Torry Holt, it might be time to call it a career as he's been absolutely terrible. Even boom/bust free agent find Kevin Walter would be a huge upgrade. And as for QB Carson Palmer, see ya, have a good 2008 at home. It's looking like a serious four horse race in the division for only three spots, who will be the odd team out?

Ante Up (2-6)
How quickly a 2-0 start looks like a lifetime ago. With six straight losses and the worst PF in the league, Ante Up is suddenly looking very vulnerable. Or maybe it's the schedule, as they've faced six straight opponents who have gone over the century mark. And Ante Up have been putting up a steady diet of 90+ games after a somewhat uneven start. There might be hope yet for a strong second half.

In order for that to happen though, there will have to be some more accountability from the QB position. Ben Roethlisberger has been erratic and it may be time to look into a replacement. Free agents like Jason Campbell, Chad Pennington, David Garrard, and even JT O'Sullivan are outpacing Big Ben. The great news for Jae's team is that Brian Westbrook is back and tore it up last weekend. With rookie sensation Steve Slaton playing well, the running game is in good hands. Now if WRs Reggie Wayne (back to back 3 point games) and Donald Driver (8 and 5 last two games) can get their act together, there will be a chance for Ante Up to get out of the cellar.

Mid-Season Review: Part 1

The Phreaks are number one! It's been awhile since Ping's team has sat in the driver's seat and while it's mostly a tie-breaker thing, there the Phreaks are atop the Spunky Misunderstood Geniuses Division. In fact, there are actually no clear cut favorites here as the top four teams are all 4-3 and separated by only 19 Points For between them. Plus, the last place team could soon be headed upwards. This is truly the division that's making it all happen this year. Let's take a look at what's been going on.

Philadelphia Phreaks (4-3)
The Phreaks are the only team in their division to have played the majority of their games against the other division. They've feasted on the Inscrutable Drama Kings by winning three of four games. Now their schedule turns to divisonal foes and it's going to be a much tougher road.

Powered by the RB duo of Marshawn Lynch and Maurice Jones-Drew, the Phreaks have found a steady ground game. Their one limiting factor is that QB Donovan McNabb isn't finding the right receivers. TJ Houshmandzadeh has been a steady WR but he's only put up 8 points for the Phreaks because he's always on the bench. Big play guys like Santana Moss and Laveranues Coles have had only one big (no, huge) game each. At least rookie WR DeSean Jackson has been playing very well (four weeks of double digit points). The question now is which Roy E. Williams will show up the rest of the season now that he's a Cowboy?

But why complain too much when the Phreaks are the third highest scoring team in the league and coming off of back to back century games? This might be the year for the Phreaks to capture their first ever divisonal title. Then Philly fans will have something to celebrate!

Fobsters (4-3)
Talk about a turnaround. From the time that Jimmy's team went winless two years ago, they've been compiling talent and wins at a breakneck pace. This year, they started out 4-1 on the strength of three century games and were looking like the runaway favorite in their division. Replacing Tom Brady with Aaron Rodgers was a great move (Rogers is top three overall right now) and Reggie Bush emerged as a solid number one back, finally.

But then came this week's 50-76 clunker against the defending co-champs Gang Green. And then the news that Reggie Bush would be out at least a month, which places him for a comeback around the playoffs. Without Bush, is there enough on this roster to even get the Fobsters there?

Well, the Fobsters do have some good receivers to work with in Calvin Johnson, Jason Witten, and Jerricho Cotchery. All of them are above average options and to be honest, Jason Witten has been amazing (four of seven games over 12+ points). RB Earnest Graham has been steady but the biggest issue is who will replace Bush? Is his real life backup, Deuce McAllister, up to the task? We're pretty sure that Larry Johnson won't be able to pick up the slack from the bench. But he is good at assaulting/spitting on women.

Battle Angel (4-3)
This is it, the hottest team in the league right now. After stumbling out of the gates with three straight losses (albeit very close losses), Vu's team has picked it up dramatically and ripped off four wins in a row, including a stretch with three straight century games. The biggest change? Ditching the running game. After suffering through a few weeks of the Laurence Maroney experience (now thankfully placed on IR), the team tried out Chargers backup Darren Sproles to little success as the #2 man in the backfield. Rudi Johnson and Edgerrin James weren't really the answer either. So Coach Vu ditched the run and took to the air!

Thirty-six year old Isaac Bruce has entered the lineup to turn this offense into a run-and-shoot and while he's slowed down a bit recently, his savvy experience has opened up the game for star WRs Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Steve Smith. Actually, the return of Steve Smith might be the reason for the Angel's success. He's scored 9, 19, 12, 14, 21 since WK2. And Greg Jennings is proving that he doesn't need Brett Favre to succeed as he's averaging 15.1 pts a game and is the top pass catcher in the game. With super accurate QB Drew Brees slinging the ball, look for the Angels to keep flying high for the rest of the season -- especially if their lone good RB, Willis McGahee, is back to form.

Gang Green (4-3)
There's no keeping a good team down. Just when it looked like Greg's championship defense might be over soon after a 1-3 start, he takes three straight games and is now back in contention. They even had a season high 152 points in WK5 on the strength of Brett Favre's 48 point carryover (although they did lose the week before when he actually threw six TDs). Now imagine if Greg had used Ronnie Brown for his 42 point explosion and subsequent carryover.

As always, Gang Green is winning by using a balanced lineup that features solid players at every position. RBs Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, and Thomas Jones are all quietly solid options and push out about fourteen points a game. Randy Moss is certainly headed for a less than jaw dropping year but he's still got three big games this year and being lazy isn't negative points yet in our league. His fellow receivers Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward are doing their usual quality work and on the horizon is Bernard Berrian, who has scored 20, 22, 17 in recent weeks. Four quality options is a good problem to have.

The one thing here is that it might be time for a change at the top. Brett Favre has been horrendous recently and that other New York QB, Eli Manning, has been playing just a tad bit better. Actually, it might behoove Gang Green to get another signal caller altogether. Still, the champs are looking strong again and fighting hard for a playoff spot. Looks like the championship curse is clearly over after the 2006 and 2007 champs returned to fight strong the following year.

Fat Jubas (2-5)
The Jubas should be having a good season. RBs Frank Gore and Michael Turner are both top ten and QB Kurt Warner is throwing the ball everywhere (five straight weeks of 20+). So what's causing the team so many problems? The last four weeks has presented Eric's team with four scores below 90 and it hasn't been getting much better. Looking over the roster, the answer is obvious. There's no functional receivers here. Brandon Marshall and the Broncos have dramatically cooled down, Tony Gonzalez wants out, and Marques Colston returned but didn't catch a pass last week. Oh and Joey Galloway and Jeremy Shockey are still injured. And um, cut.

On paper, the Jubas are just fine, especially if Colston and Marshall return to form. With a balanced team all around, they should be moving up the charts soon, instead of embroiled in a four game slide. Amazingly, I think the record shows that the Jubas have gone through five defenses this season (Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, Panthers, and now the Steelers). That must be a record.

He beat me...Straight up...

Here's the question, is strength of schedule the hidden key to a successful season? It's much easier to win when your opponent sucks right? The general consensus if that if you face a soft schedule, you're likely on your way to a winning record. Well, let's take a look shall we?

Well, that rule gets upended right from our first season in 2001 as the four teams with the easiest schedule went a combined 21-32 -- compared to 35-24 for the four toughest schedules in the league. Only TAGHeuer (now the Phreaks) snuck into the playoffs, albeit with a 6-7 record. In addition, that year the Battle Angels had the hardest schedule in the league (opponents averaged 94.2 pts) but still emerged with a 8-6 record, won the division title, and advanced to the Super Bowl.

Well, that was our first year, it must have been an aberration right?

Not so fast. In 2002, the very next year, the Flaming Shrapnel had the exact same scenario happen to them. Despite facing the toughest schedule in the league (opponents averaged 100.1 pts), they went 8-7, won the division, and barely lost in the playoffs. In addition, the Jammers went 7-6, snuck into the playoffs, and upset the Monkeys in their first playoff game. All while facing the second toughest schedule in the league. The four hardest scheduled teams that year went 26-31 while the four easiest had a combined 29-26 record (much of that skewed by the Dirty Bird's 12-3 record). Again, no clear advantage to having a soft schedule.

Let's also take a look to see if there are any trends. For example, are the league leaders and top contenders consistently facing the easiest schedules? Well, the Birds had a softy schedule in 2002 on their way to a dominant championship run. Then they had the easiest schedule again the next year but tanked to 5-8. The champs from that year, the Jammers, faced a middle of the pack schedule and dominated on their way to 13-2.

Actually, 2004 was another crazy year. The Battle Angels went 9-6 while facing the second hardest schedule in the league. And Buffy went 9-7 during their second championship run despite fighting against the toughest schedule ever (101.69 pt avg). In addition to all that, all three playoff teams from the Spunky Misunderstood Geniuses division had harder schedules than their compatriots who didn't make the cut. By a wide margin too.

The only year where things seemed to fall along the "soft schedule equals wins" was 2005. Ante Up and Green Team both won divisional crowns (Ante Up by a wide margin) by feasting on the two of the three easiest schedules in the league. The three toughest schedules that year combined for a 12-20 record and were the three worst teams in the league. Looking at the four easiest versus toughest schedules, we see a clear difference as the easiest scheduled teams went 34-18 and the four toughest stumbled to 17-34-1.

For our last two years, the trend has been for the Spunky Misunderstood division leader to face a relatively easy schedule (Fat Jubas and Gang Green) while the Inscrutable Drama Kings' leaders have faced tough opponents (Chunky Monkeys and Dirty Birds). The blip is that the two Inscrutable Drama King winners have compiled records of 14-1 and 12-3-1 while playing the "rough" side of the slate.

Another strange trend, the ability of a second place team to pile drive their way through a tough schedule is highlighted in 2006 as Buffy and the Phreaks both squeaked out winning records on their way to the playoffs. In our last full season, the three worst teams all were crushed by tough records. So far this season? Well, it looks like the same thing is happening: We have no idea.

Perhaps the answer isn't to look at who's been having tough schedules but who's been putting up the most points? As we've proved by looking over the stats, there is hardly any correlation between an easy schedule and team success. In fact, sometimes it helps to face tough opponents. Basically if your team is good, you will win regardless of who you're facing. Wait, was this obvious already?

One last tidbit, no winning team has ever put up less points than their opponents, although a few have come very close (Shrapel in 2002, Ante Up in 2003, Phreaks in 2006). So the answer is that you still gotta score baby!