He beat me...Straight up...

Here's the question, is strength of schedule the hidden key to a successful season? It's much easier to win when your opponent sucks right? The general consensus if that if you face a soft schedule, you're likely on your way to a winning record. Well, let's take a look shall we?

Well, that rule gets upended right from our first season in 2001 as the four teams with the easiest schedule went a combined 21-32 -- compared to 35-24 for the four toughest schedules in the league. Only TAGHeuer (now the Phreaks) snuck into the playoffs, albeit with a 6-7 record. In addition, that year the Battle Angels had the hardest schedule in the league (opponents averaged 94.2 pts) but still emerged with a 8-6 record, won the division title, and advanced to the Super Bowl.

Well, that was our first year, it must have been an aberration right?

Not so fast. In 2002, the very next year, the Flaming Shrapnel had the exact same scenario happen to them. Despite facing the toughest schedule in the league (opponents averaged 100.1 pts), they went 8-7, won the division, and barely lost in the playoffs. In addition, the Jammers went 7-6, snuck into the playoffs, and upset the Monkeys in their first playoff game. All while facing the second toughest schedule in the league. The four hardest scheduled teams that year went 26-31 while the four easiest had a combined 29-26 record (much of that skewed by the Dirty Bird's 12-3 record). Again, no clear advantage to having a soft schedule.

Let's also take a look to see if there are any trends. For example, are the league leaders and top contenders consistently facing the easiest schedules? Well, the Birds had a softy schedule in 2002 on their way to a dominant championship run. Then they had the easiest schedule again the next year but tanked to 5-8. The champs from that year, the Jammers, faced a middle of the pack schedule and dominated on their way to 13-2.

Actually, 2004 was another crazy year. The Battle Angels went 9-6 while facing the second hardest schedule in the league. And Buffy went 9-7 during their second championship run despite fighting against the toughest schedule ever (101.69 pt avg). In addition to all that, all three playoff teams from the Spunky Misunderstood Geniuses division had harder schedules than their compatriots who didn't make the cut. By a wide margin too.

The only year where things seemed to fall along the "soft schedule equals wins" was 2005. Ante Up and Green Team both won divisional crowns (Ante Up by a wide margin) by feasting on the two of the three easiest schedules in the league. The three toughest schedules that year combined for a 12-20 record and were the three worst teams in the league. Looking at the four easiest versus toughest schedules, we see a clear difference as the easiest scheduled teams went 34-18 and the four toughest stumbled to 17-34-1.

For our last two years, the trend has been for the Spunky Misunderstood division leader to face a relatively easy schedule (Fat Jubas and Gang Green) while the Inscrutable Drama Kings' leaders have faced tough opponents (Chunky Monkeys and Dirty Birds). The blip is that the two Inscrutable Drama King winners have compiled records of 14-1 and 12-3-1 while playing the "rough" side of the slate.

Another strange trend, the ability of a second place team to pile drive their way through a tough schedule is highlighted in 2006 as Buffy and the Phreaks both squeaked out winning records on their way to the playoffs. In our last full season, the three worst teams all were crushed by tough records. So far this season? Well, it looks like the same thing is happening: We have no idea.

Perhaps the answer isn't to look at who's been having tough schedules but who's been putting up the most points? As we've proved by looking over the stats, there is hardly any correlation between an easy schedule and team success. In fact, sometimes it helps to face tough opponents. Basically if your team is good, you will win regardless of who you're facing. Wait, was this obvious already?

One last tidbit, no winning team has ever put up less points than their opponents, although a few have come very close (Shrapel in 2002, Ante Up in 2003, Phreaks in 2006). So the answer is that you still gotta score baby!