Midseason Power Rankings: Good or Lucky?

By Mel AIper, CTDB Analyst

Halfway home, and the defending champion Monkeys are right where they finished last December: on top. The Chunky Monkeys are 10-2 with a three-game lead, the only team still unbeaten head to head, and they’ve been first or tied for first after every week of the season. Behind them, four teams are stuck at 7-5, and one of them, A Squad Called Blitz, has scored more points than anyone.

It’s been a topsy-turvy first half. Gang Green has scored like the best team in the league: if every team played every other team every week, it would be 39-15, the best mark anywhere. In actual games it’s 2-4 head to head, and a 5-1 record in the bonus results is what has it at 7-5. The City of Angels Masterminds won four straight with a roster built entirely in the draft room, then lost both ends of Week 6 and half their receiving corps to the trainer’s room. The Jail Yard Boyz finished last in two of the first three weeks but have recently come alive, posting the top score two weeks running. And five of the top 10 quarterbacks this season came off the waiver wire, one of them a Friday signing who sat unclaimed until a desperate GM came calling.

So here’s the question the second half has to answer: who’s actually good, and who’s just been lucky? 

The Rankings

Records are through Week 6 and include the weekly bonus result.

These rankings weigh all-play record (how a team would do against all nine opponents every week), luck, position groups and the schedule ahead, not just wins.

Tier 1: The Contenders

1. Chunky Monkeys (10-2, 6-0 head to head)

The reigning Super Bowl champions again have the best record in the league, and they’ve also had the most luck. Against all nine teams every week they’d be 37-17, second-best in the league, which says a team this strong usually has about four head-to-head wins by now, not six. Monkeys opponents have averaged 97 points a week, the fewest anyone has faced, which is how 104 in Week 2 and 101 in Week 4 still got wins.

The roster is real, though: the league’s best receiving corps and two top-six quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence and Tyler Shough, who finished first and second at the position in Week 6. Coach Evan’s defining decision came at the top of the draft: the Monkeys led off by selecting Bhayshul Tuten and Christian Watson - both of whom are fixtures in the starting lineup. What has to go right: Rashee Rice has to get healthy, because the hardest remaining schedule in the league is waiting, with two games against Blitz. On the bright side, word from the Monkeys front office is that the kicker search is over.

2. A Squad Called Blitz (7-5, 4-2)

Nobody has scored more. Blitz has 836 points, almost 140 a week, and it’s the only team with three top-12 running backs: Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard, a seventh-round pick. Its 32-22 all-play record is third-best, and its luck is close to even. The 7-5 is mostly one bad Sunday: the league’s lowest score in Week 5, which in this league costs you twice.

Coach Thien’s defining decision was Brock Purdy in the third round, the QB2 on the season and the steal of the draft. His lineup calls just won him a 6-point game over Buffy, too. What has to go right: CeeDee Lamb, the WR2 on the season, has to look like himself, not the receiver who gave Blitz 2 points in Week 5. Blitz still plays the Masterminds and the Monkeys twice each, starting with the Masterminds on Sunday, so Coach Thien gets to settle the top of the table himself.

3. Gang Green (7-5, 2-4)

The standings are lying about this team. Gang Green is 39-15 against the whole league, the best all-play record by two games, and 2-4 where it counts. Its opponents have averaged 143 points a week, the most in the league, and it lost four straight with the third-, fourth-, seventh- and second-best scores of those weeks before finally beating Custom J in Week 6. A 5-1 bonus record is the only reason it’s above .500. Fantasy football can be brutal.

It isn’t the manager, either. GM Greg has set the most efficient lineups in the league, with the best quarterback room behind them: Josh Allen, the QB1, and Jared Goff, an eighth-round pick who is QB2 per game. What has to go right: nothing new. Gang Green has the easiest schedule left, and if the luck evens out, nobody will want to see this team in December.

4. City of Angels Masterminds (7-5, 4-2)

Four straight wins, then a Week 6 that took the wins and the receivers. This is a new MasterMinds team, different from yesteryear for sure. Every Masterminds starter point this season has come from keepers and draft picks, not one waiver pickup, and James Cook III, the RB1 over the last three weeks, is still the engine. It's the best roster this franchise has put together but now, the most banged-up.

Davante Adams, the first pick after the keepers, ruptured a hamstring and is out 6 to 10 weeks. Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve, Deebo Samuel Sr. is nursing a hamstring, and Breece Hall, a keeper, and Tyler Warren are out too. The 29-25 all-play record already said the Masterminds were almost a win luckier than their scores, the quarterback room ranks ninth, and the receiving corps is down to eighth. Coach Marcus’s defining decision was Parker Washington in the second round, now WR9 on the season, and he’ll need every catch. MasterMinds should probably make a trade or two. What has to go right: survive Blitz in Week 7 and Gang Green in Week 8, two of the four best teams on paper, with a patched-up lineup.

Tier 2: The Muddled Middle

5. Jail Yard Boyz (7-5, 3-3)

The hottest team in the league moves up a spot. Last year’s runner-up was bottom 3 through the first 3 weeks and tied for seventh after Week 4 ... then Victor held a team-only meeting. Rumor was it that jobs and rec time were threatened. Since then, the team has gone and posted the top score two weeks running, 194 and 146. Drake Maye, who was QB27, QB26 and QB32 in the first three weeks, is the QB1 over the last three, and C.J. Stroud, a free waiver pick up, is the QB2. Malik Nabers is the WR1 over that span, and Isaiah Likely, a sixth-round pick, is the TE1.

GM Victor’s decision to start Maye in Week 5 reset the team as they went on to set a season high in points scored that week. What has to go right: the lineup calls, after 158 points left on the bench, second-most in the league. The Boyz also have the second-easiest schedule left, starting with Custom J, and if the Weeks 4-6 version is the real one, nobody wants to draw them.

6. Crunch Bunch (5-7, 2-4)

The Bunch is better than 5-7. It’s tied for fourth in all-play (30-24) and fifth in points, and its backfield ranks second, with Kenneth Walker III at RB2 and Jaylen Warren at RB3 over the last three weeks. Nobody got more out of the early rounds, either: Joe Burrow, Warren, Quinshon Judkins and Carnell Tate have given GM Eddie 259 starter points.

The catch is picking the right ones. The Bunch has left 167 points on the bench, the most in the league, which is what happens with this many good running backs. Games are never won on the bench, as every GM in this league knows. GM Eddie’s defining decision may turn out to be the 5-dollar claim on Jordan Love, the QB7 on the season. What has to go right: A.J. Brown, a keeper, back from injured reserve, and a few better guesses on Sunday mornings.

7. Battle Angel (6-6, 3-3)

GM Will has taken two Pots, the most in the league, and that sums up the Angels’ first half: great moments, not enough wins until lately. They started 0-4 and are back to 6-6 after beating the Masterminds in Week 6. The 26-28 all-play record and even luck say .500 is about right. The good news is the backfield, where keepers Kyren Williams and Javonte Williams are RB4 and RB6 over the last three weeks.

The defining decision was a free one: Bryce Young, claimed for 0 dollars in September, is QB3 per game and won the Week 4 Pot. With Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix also on the roster, picking the right one is the hard part; Daniels’s 34 on the bench in Week 5 would have flipped that game. What has to go right: Chris Olave, the WR4 on the season, has to stay healthy, since Travis Etienne Jr., another keeper, is on injured reserve until around Week 9.

8. Philadelphia Phreaks (5-7, 3-3)

The playoff seat the Phreaks held a week ago is gone, and so is their quarterback. Jalen Hurts, a keeper, is out for the season with blood clots in his lungs, and Kirk Cousins, a free Friday signing, is QB1 for the foreseeable future. The numbers saw this coming. The Phreaks’ 14-40 all-play record is tied for the worst in the league, and they’re about a win and a half luckier than their scores, second only to the Monkeys. Sorry, Ping.

Star power keeps them in it: Jahmyr Gibbs is the RB1 on the season and Puka Nacua is WR2 per game. GM Ping’s defining decision was 31 dollars for Ollie Gordon II, the biggest bid of the season, and Gordon was RB10 over Weeks 3 through 5. What has to go right: Saquon Barkley, a keeper, back from his hamstring, and a receiving corps that ranks ninth playing above its station, with Gang Green on the schedule twice.

Tier 3: Fighting to Stay Alive

9. LA Buffy (3-9, 1-5)

Here’s a surprise: only the Boyz have gotten more out of the draft than LA Buffy, with 447 starter points from its picks, led by Sam LaPorta, the TE5, and Tre Tucker, whose 24 in Week 6 was the best receiver day in the league. The problem is the keepers. They’ve given Buffy 200 points, the fewest of any team, with David Montgomery out with a groin injury, DeVonta Smith dealing with a hamstring and a toe, and Marvin Harrison Jr. yet to score as a starter.

It also has the league’s weakest backfield, with its top three running backs at RB28, RB30 and RB34, and the 19-35 all-play record says 3-9 isn’t bad luck. Four straight losses say the same. GM Roger’s best move was handing the job to Matthew Stafford, the QB8 over the last three weeks. What has to go right: the keepers get healthy, fast.

10. Custom J (3-9, 2-4)

The computer built this team, and the computer has some explaining to do. Custom J has scored the fewest points in the league and shares the worst all-play record, 14-40. De’Von Achane, a keeper, is done for the season, and now so is Terry McLaurin, the second-round pick, with a torn patellar tendon. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on injured reserve, Lamar Jackson has missed two straight with an ankle, and TreVeyon Henderson, the third-rounder, is on the bust list below.

There are bright spots. Trey McBride is the TE2 on the season, D’Andre Swift, the first pick after the keepers, is RB10, and GM Josh’s 3-dollar claim on Jacoby Brissett won the Week 5 Pot. What has to go right: Lamar back, and more Sundays like Week 5. Last December this team played in the semifinals. Hang in there, Josh. The computer still believes in this team.

Early Draft Review

The best drafts. The Jail Yard Boyz won the draft, with 466 starter points from their picks, and they won the late rounds outright: 265 from picks in round five or later, the most in the league. The Crunch Bunch won the early rounds. And Blitz made the best pick of the draft, Purdy in the third, who has scored more as a starter than any other non-keeper.

The Monkeys’ class. Tuten and Watson were Coach Evan’s first two picks after his keepers, and both have earned their spots. Watson has started all six weeks and is WR3 on the season. Tuten has started five and is RB11 over the last three weeks. Then, at pick 100, came Lawrence, who’s the QB3 on the season. Three weekly starters from a draft that began at pick 60 is a good day’s work.

Late-round steals. Likely, the Boyz’ sixth-rounder, is the TE1. Matthew Golden, their tenth, is WR6 on the season. Blitz found Hubbard in the seventh and Jalen Coker, WR14 per game when he plays, in the 12th. And Goff, Gang Green’s eighth-round backup, is QB2 per game.

The ones that haven’t paid off yet. Every draft has a few. Makai Lemon, the Phreaks’ first-round rookie, is WR90 on the season. Jadarian Price, Gang Green’s first-rounder, is on injured reserve, and DJ Moore, its second, is WR66. Rome Odunze has started once for Blitz, and Courtland Sutton hasn’t started for Battle Angel yet. McLaurin and Henderson belong to Custom J, which means the computer owns two of the seven.

The thinnest drafts belong to Gang Green (196 starter points from draft picks, the fewest) and the Phreaks (198). Both lean on keepers, and Gang Green’s have scored 570, the most in the league by more than 100.

Draft Capital vs. the Waiver Wire

Draft capital buys a head start; the waiver wire is where seasons get saved. This year it’s where the quarterbacks were.

• Bryce Young, Battle Angel, 0 dollars: QB3 per game and a Pot.
• Tyler Shough, Monkeys, 5 dollars: QB6 on the season, and a top-12 quarterback in four of six weeks. With Lawrence, the Monkeys have two top-six quarterbacks, one from pick 100 and one for five dollars.
• C.J. Stroud, Jail Yard Boyz, 0 dollars: QB2 over the last three weeks.
• Jordan Love, Crunch Bunch, 5 dollars: QB7 on the season, claimed only on October 14.
• Jacoby Brissett, Custom J, 3 dollars: QB6 over Weeks 3 through 5, and the Week 5 Pot.
• Kirk Cousins, Phreaks, free: QB4 on the season, and nobody touched him until Friday, when GM Ping needed a quarterback.

Beyond quarterback, Emanuel Wilson (6 dollars) is RB12 over the last three weeks for the Monkeys, and GM Greg found two startable tight ends for a combined 1 dollar, Mike Gesicki (TE7 per game) and Pat Freiermuth (TE8 over the last three weeks). Then there’s Germie Bernard, Coach Evan’s 16-dollar claim on October 14, who had his coming-out party in Week 6: 20.2 points, WR3 for the week, nearly double his previous best.

That makes the champs the most waiver-built team in the league, with more than one in five starter points coming off the wire. The Masterminds have yet to start a pickup. Opposite blueprints, and they meet in Week 11.

Still sitting there. Aaron Rodgers was QB2 over Weeks 3 through 5 and is still on nobody’s roster. And Kyle Pitts Sr. is TE3 over the last three weeks, dropped the same morning the Boyz paid 8 dollars for Dalton Kincaid, who’s TE29 over that span. GM Victor may want that one back.

Position Groups

Every point below is a starter point through Week 6: what each team actually put in its lineup, not what sat on the bench. Ranks are full-season position ranks unless noted.

Quarterbacks: Gang Green. Josh Allen, the QB1, has given Gang Green 193.8 points, 32.3 a week, all by himself. Blitz is second with 176.6 from Brock Purdy, the QB2. The Monkeys are third at 163.2, split between Tyler Shough (89.6, QB6 on the season) and Trevor Lawrence (73.6, QB3).

The bottom: the Phreaks (131.0), and 105.4 of that came from Jalen Hurts, who’s done for the year. Battle Angel is last at 126.1, and that’s a lineup-call problem, not a talent problem: Bryce Young is QB3 per game, but the Angels have started three different quarterbacks. The so-what: Gang Green gets about 11 more points a week from one slot than the Angels do.

Running backs: Blitz, by a mile. Bijan Robinson (RB3), Jonathan Taylor (RB5) and Chuba Hubbard (RB11) have given Blitz 303.0 starter points, the only team with three top-12 backs. The Bunch is second at 268.7, mostly Kenneth Walker III (131.0, RB2), and Gang Green third at 261.8 with Derrick Henry (RB4) and Christian McCaffrey (RB7).

The bottom: the Monkeys (161.7) and Buffy (139.2), whose top three backs are RB28, RB30 and RB34. Yes, the first-place team has the ninth-best starting backfield. Bhayshul Tuten (RB14) carries it. The so-what: the Monkeys are winning in spite of their running backs, and that’s the spot where a trade would help most.

Wide receivers: the Monkeys, and it isn’t close. Monkeys receivers have put up 336.1 starter points, 56 a week, 94 more than anyone else. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1, 140.5) and Christian Watson (WR3, 104.3) do most of it. Blitz (242.0, CeeDee Lamb at WR2) and the Boyz (241.9, Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers and Matthew Golden, the WR6) are basically tied for second.

The bottom: the Phreaks (183.3, with Puka Nacua the only big number) and Custom J (138.2), where Mike Evans (WR12) is the lone regular and Terry McLaurin is now out for the year. The so-what: the WR gap between the Monkeys and the field is worth about 16 points a week, more than any other position.

Tight ends: a three-way tie. Gang Green (78.6, George Kittle at TE3), Custom J (78.6, Trey McBride at TE2) and the Monkeys (78.2, Brock Bowers, TE1 per game) are separated by less than half a point. Surprise: Isaiah Likely is the TE1 on the season, but the Boyz have only 66.0 starter points at the spot because some of his points came on the bench.

The bottom: Blitz (44.1, all Harold Fannin Jr.) and Battle Angel (23.2, which works out to under 4 a week). The so-what: the top three are almost even, but the bottom two are giving away about 6 to 9 points a week.

FLEX: Blitz and the Monkeys. Blitz has 87.8 from the flex spot and the Monkeys have 84.4, both built on depth. Custom J is last at 30.7, about 5 a week from a slot meant to be a weapon.

Kickers and defenses. Buffy gets the most from its kicker (58.0, Ka’imi Fairbairn), and Custom J’s defenses lead the league (43.0). The Phreaks are last in both, 30 from the kicker and 8 from the defense. Gang Green (12) and the Monkeys (15) have also gotten almost nothing from their defenses. The so-what: small numbers, but the Phreaks trail the top kicker-plus-defense teams by about 9 points a week, and that decides close games.

The test: are the Monkeys’ pass catchers the deepest group in the league? Coach Evan figures Smith-Njigba, Watson, Bowers, Germie and Rice are. He’s half right. On the roster, the Monkeys’ top five pass catchers have scored 412 points, the most in the league, and four of them rank in the top 24 at their position over the last three weeks: Bowers (TE2), Smith-Njigba (WR3), Watson (WR9) and Bernard (WR21).

But it’s top-heavy. Rice has 31.5 points on the season (WR65) and hasn’t scored in three weeks, which makes Luther Burden III the fourth-best receiver on the roster. On season ranks the Boyz are deeper, with six top-24 pass catchers to the Monkeys’ four, plus the TE1 and the WR1 over the last three weeks. Best? Yes, by 94 starter points at wide receiver. Deepest? No, that’s the Boyz.

Midseason Awards

• MVP: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chunky Monkeys. He’s the WR1 by 33 points, about the same gap that separates WR2 from WR12. Josh Allen, the QB1 by 17, is a close second.
• Best pickup: Bryce Young, Battle Angel. Free, QB3 per game, and a Pot.
• Unluckiest team: Gang Green. Best all-play record, 2-4 head to head.
• Luckiest team: Chunky Monkeys. About two wins ahead of their scores, with the Phreaks close behind.
• Best manager: GM Greg, Gang Green. His lineups have captured 91% of the best possible score. Coach Thien is next at 90%.
• The Pot so far: Battle Angel in Week 1 (closest loss) and Week 4 (waiver hero, Young’s 28.75), Blitz in Week 2 (best flex, Taylor’s 27.2), the Masterminds in Week 3 (best kicker and defense, 29.0), Custom J in Week 5 (lowest-scoring winner, 112.6) and the Monkeys in Week 6 (best rookie, Bernard’s 20.2).

Second-Half Outlook

The schedule. The Monkeys have the hardest road left. Their Week 7 through 14 opponents average 127.3 points a week, and the list includes Blitz in Weeks 8 and 14, Gang Green in Week 9 and the Masterminds in Week 11. The easiest paths belong to Gang Green (116.2) and the Boyz (116.8), and that’s bad news for everyone else.

The Trainer’s Room. Week 6 was rough. McLaurin and Hurts are done for the year, Adams is out 6 to 10 weeks, and Doubs is on injured reserve. Rice and Barkley are still listed out, Hall is week to week, A.J. Brown is back from injured reserve, and Etienne could return around Week 9. Custom J has lost Achane and McLaurin for the year, and every week Lamar misses makes the climb steeper.

If the season ended today: the Monkeys, plus Blitz, Gang Green, the Masterminds and the Boyz at 7-5, and Battle Angel at 6-6. The Bunch and the Phreaks are one game out, and Buffy and Custom J are three. With 16 results still to play, that’s nothing.

The projected six: the Monkeys, Blitz, Gang Green, the Masterminds, the Boyz and the Bunch. Good or lucky? The champs are a little of both. Gang Green has been good and unlucky, which tends to fix itself. The Phreaks were the team the second half was coming for, and it came early. Without Hurts, they have eight weeks to prove the numbers wrong.