Week 4 Preview: Ollie Gordon Comes Home

By Mel Alper, CTDB Analyst

Ollie Gordon has spent September getting passed around this league like a casserole dish. He spent last season with the Phreaks. This year, Blitz took him in the fifth round on draft night only to be cut ten days later. On Wednesday, GM Ping paid 31 dollars to bring him home, the biggest bid this league has seen all year — the prodigal son returns.

What changed was a knee in Miami. De’Von Achane tore his ACL on Sunday, and four of Wednesday’s eight claims were Dolphins: Gordon and Jaylen Wright to Ping, Malik Washington to Marcus, Chris Bell to Josh. More than half the league put in bids for Ollie but Ping won out. In fact, by Wednesday morning Ping owned both halves of the Miami backfield, and Josh owned a questionable receiver — sorry Josh.

Josh’s reward for his week is a matchup against the 5-1 Monkeys. The Monkeys are 5-1 and alone in first and with Bowers back, they seem to be primed for a run. Custom J, on the other hand, is 2-4, down a keeper, and projected to score 117 by ESPN, the lowest number in the league. My picks went 3-2 last week, and one of the three was a pick against Custom J (sorry again Josh).

Matchup of the week, and the Custom J watch: Chunky Monkeys vs Custom J

Custom J gets watched every week because Claude built him and honestly, AI eradicating humans seems like a lower probability these days. The computer drafted for Josh, and every Sunday is a referendum on Claude (sources say, it was even Fable at work). The Monkeys won it in 2021, 2022 and 2025, Custom J in 2023 and 2024. Across all twelve meetings in that span the Monkeys lead 8-4, and they have won the last four.

Custom J comes in this week hurt, and the hurt runs past Sunday. Achane, a keeper since 2024, is done for the year. A late-September tear leaves an outside chance he’s ready for Week 1 next season, which turns next summer’s keeper call into a medical question. Ladd McConkey, also a keeper, is questionable with a new foot problem. D’Andre Swift landed on Thursday’s report with a knee but was back at practice Friday. Mike Evans has the ribs, the kind of injury receivers play through on fewer snaps and fewer targets, and the cautious read says sit him.

The projections want Terry McLaurin in for TreVeyon Henderson, though McLaurin turned up Friday with a hamstring of his own. His game kicks off early, in London, so Josh will know before the rest of the slate. The projections also want the Chiefs defense over the Bears, which is a sentence with a history. Josh claimed the Bears for a dollar two Sundays ago, dropped them for the Chiefs four days later, and claimed the Bears back on Wednesday for another dollar. The gap is two-tenths of a point, so this is about principle, not math. Keep the Chiefs.

The Monkeys’ lineup is stout — they made some last-minute changes at K and DST. The front office says the staffer on the improvement plan has been moved off lineup duty so things should be smoother going forward.

Pick: the Monkeys, healthy, set and favored by 12 against three questionable starters and a keeper on injured reserve. Two straight weeks now the preview has gone against the roster the computer built.

A Squad Called Blitz vs Jail Yard Boyz

Last week’s best score against last week’s worst, in the Bay Area division. Blitz put up 174, the season high. The Boyz put up 75 and sit 60 points behind everyone else in points for. The series says ignore all of that. The Boyz own it 8-4 over the last five years and have won the last two meetings, including last year’s playoff game, 151 to 120.

Blitz has scored more points than anyone this season and has its whole lineup set the way the projections want it, with one catch. Jalen Coker is questionable with a quad and isn’t expected to play, so Thien should have Emeka Egbuka, at 9.5, ready to slide in. On the other side, Bucky Irving is questionable with a glute, but he practiced on a limited basis, which usually means he plays.

Pick: Blitz, by about 10 on the projections. History is nice to have, but it doesn’t play receiver.

Battle Angel vs Gang Green

The widest projection on the board, Gang Green by 17, in a Road-division game between two franchises that have split eleven meetings over five years almost evenly, 6-5 Greg.

The Angels’ case is a waiver quarterback. Bryce Young projects at 27, within a point of Josh Allen, for a team that claimed him off the wire two Sundays ago when Jayden Daniels’ elbow went. Daniels is out again, and the cautious read says Week 6, so the job is Young’s for now. He plays Sunday night against Detroit. Jakobi Meyers is questionable again with the thumb he has played through every week.

Greg’s call is in the flex, where the projections want Braelon Allen, at 11.9, over DJ Moore at 10.8. Moore has since come off the injury report, so this is a matchup call, not a health call. With Breece Hall out, Allen inherits most of the Jets backfield, against a soft Bears run defense.

Pick: Gang Green. Seventeen points is a lot of ground for one waiver quarterback to cover.

City of Angels Masterminds vs Philadelphia Phreaks

The Masterminds are 4-2 and lead Gang Green on points for by a tenth of a point, 425.4 to 425.3. It buys them nothing. Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, Gang Green won the Week 1 meeting, and ESPN lists Greg third. The Phreaks have won the last three meetings in this series by 48, 67 and 47 points, the latest 152 to 106, and ESPN has them by 3, the tightest projection of the week.

Then look at who’s actually playing. Marcus is without Breece Hall, a keeper, ruled out with a quad strain that usually costs about two weeks and carries re-injury risk. The back who replaces him in New York sits on Gang Green’s bench. The projections want Tyler Warren at tight end and Alvin Kamara in the flex, and the Masterminds’ lineup carries no injury tags at all.

Ping’s carries three. Puka Nacua, a keeper, is expected back from the groin, though the more cautious read is that it lingers all season. Kenyon Sadiq practiced on a limited basis and should play. Justin Jefferson is the problem. He has been a Phreaks keeper every year since 2021, he didn’t practice Wednesday, he wasn’t spotted Thursday, and the cautious read of the tape says high ankle, which usually means more than one week and a dip after. Swap his 15 for a bench receiver’s 9 and that 3-point edge becomes a 3-point deficit.

Pick: the Phreaks, narrowly. They have won this game by 46 or more three years running, and Nacua’s return covers part of what Jefferson’s ankle costs.

Crunch Bunch vs LA Buffy

These two spent last December together in the consolation ladder, twice, and Buffy won both, the second one 93 to 41. That made three straight for Buffy in a series the Bunch opened 4-0.

For the third straight week the preview has a note for Eddie about Kyle Monangai, and this week Thursday night made the call before he could. Jaylen Warren, projected at 15, played the Browns on Thursday and scored 14 on the Bunch bench. That’s locked. Monangai, projected at 8, still has to play, so he needs 14 just to make the lineup look right. Last week the same pair went 19 to 3 the wrong way.

There is one way Monangai pays off. He’s D’Andre Swift’s backup in Chicago, and Swift, who plays for Eddie’s brother Josh, has that knee. Swift practiced Friday, so don’t count on it. Quinshon Judkins already put 19 on the board Thursday, so Eddie starts Sunday ahead.

Buffy’s lineup is already the best version of itself by the projections, with two questions at receiver. Nico Collins, a keeper, is expected back from the hamstring. DeVonta Smith, another keeper, sat out Thursday’s practice with his. Roger’s best insurance, DK Metcalf, already played Thursday and scored 14 on the bench, so the backup plan is Tre Tucker.

Pick: Buffy. Three straight in the series, nothing left on the bench, and Eddie hoping Monangai can outrun a number that’s already in.

Starters and bench

This section is for the calls that can still be made. Thursday took some off the table. Warren’s 14, Metcalf’s 14, Denzel Boston’s 11 and KC Concepcion’s 9 all went up on benches and are staying there.

Most of what’s left is in the games above. Eddie has two more: Juwan Johnson over Tucker Kraft at tight end, 8.6 to 6.9, and the Jaguars defense over the Panthers, who draw Detroit on Sunday night, opposite Eddie’s own Amon-Ra St. Brown. Victor should get Malik Nabers back in over Jaylen Waddle, 11.4 to 9.5. Ping’s projections want Dobbins over the 31-dollar man, 9.6 to 8.0. The Monkeys, Buffy and the Angels are within a point of their best lineups, and Blitz is too if Coker plays.

Atlanta and New Orleans play Monday night, which leaves Bijan Robinson and Drake London for Blitz, Chris Olave for the Angels and, if Evan flips the coin his way, Shough for the Monkeys as the last word of the week.

Transactions

The hole was in Miami, and Wednesday’s run went straight at it. Five teams claimed and five stood pat, and the run cost 71 dollars. Ping spent 48 of it, as much as Gang Green has spent all season, and at 66 for the year he is now the league’s biggest spender.

Gordon was 31 of the 48 and Wright the other 17. To make room, Ping let go of Devaughn Vele, the receiver he bought for 11 in Week 2, and Baker Mayfield, his backup quarterback, who is out for weeks with a dislocated thumb. Read: Ping didn’t buy a running back. He bought the whole Dolphins backfield, both halves, the week Josh lost it. The early word is a committee, Wright on passing downs and Gordon in short yardage, against a Vikings defense nobody wants to start into. Week 4 is the audition.

Marcus paid 10 for Malik Washington, another Dolphin, and dropped Rashid Shaheed. Josh paid 8 for Chris Bell, a fourth, plus a dollar for a kicker, Dominic Zvada, and a dollar to bring the Bears back. Victor’s Steelers defense cost 2 and returned 3 on Thursday. Evan spent a dollar Wednesday on Shrader and went back Thursday for the Ravens defense at 3.

This Week’s Pot 💰

Week 4 pays the waiver hero: the highest-scoring starter who wasn’t drafted or kept this year. Last year’s Week 4 paid for wide receiver catches and went to the Phreaks, so nobody is defending this one. The Angels’ Young is the clear favorite: at 27, he has the best projection of any qualifying starter by a wide margin. The closest challenger sits on a bench: Shough, a 5-dollar claim, projects at 24.8 behind Lawrence on the commissioner’s roster. Start him, and the Pot becomes a two-quarterback race between waiver adds. Sit him, and it’s Young’s to lose.

Week 3 Recap: The Empty Slot

By Mel Alper, CTDB Analyst

What a week - the Monkeys shipped an awesome week despite displaying some really rookie GM mistakes. Evan spent Wednesday morning shopping for a kicker but somehow picked up a defense and cut the kicker and as a result, had played against Gang Green with no kicker. It didn't matter though - the Monkeys still won (see below). The Monkeys front office is calling it an administrative error, and an unnamed member of the staff has been placed on a performance improvement plan.

The Monkey's nine men in a ten-man lineup scored 163, beat Gang Green by 29, and put the Monkeys alone in first at 5-1.

It was also a week to be a backup quarterback. Sam Darnold, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff all threw for 26 or more from a bench, and six of the ten starting quarterbacks scored less than all four of them. Darnold’s 39 sat behind Brock Purdy’s 42 on the same Blitz roster, on the way to the highest score this league has seen all season. For all that bench production, not one quarterback call flipped a game. Purdy and Shough outscored the backups behind them. Goff’s extra 7 would have left Greg 22 short, and Stafford would have left Roger a point and a half short.

The preview board went 3-2. It was right on Blitz, on the Angels, and on the Phreaks over the roster the computer drafted. It was wrong on Gang Green, who lost to the commissioner by 29, and wrong on the Boyz, who lost by 72.

The games

Chunky Monkeys 163, Gang Green 134

This was the first real test for the champion. They were the only two teams above even, and Gang Green had won the last two meetings, 136 to 84 in 2024 and 116 to 112 last season. The preview took Greg because the Monkeys’ Wednesday lineup needed two substitutions just to reach its own ceiling. Evan made both of them, and then a third.

Tyler Shough, claimed Wednesday for 5, threw for 34 while Lawrence sat on 28. Brock Bowers played for the first time this season and went for 23 at tight end, where Michael Mayer would have given him 11. Luther Burden III took Rhamondre Stevenson’s spot and outscored him 16 to 5. Add them up and the three changes were worth 30 points, and the margin was 29. With the Wednesday lineup left alone, the Monkeys lose this game by eight-tenths of a point.

Greg lost it in the half of his roster he didn’t start. Josh Allen threw for 19 on a projection of 30, and Goff threw for 26 on the bench, a week after throwing for 41 there. Michael Wilson caught 20 and Kalif Raymond, the 19-dollar claim, caught 18, both on the bench. Nobody sets that lineup on a Sunday morning, but it was on the roster, and it scores 169. Greg did what the projections told him and scored 134, fourth in the league. That was good enough for the standings win and nowhere near enough for the game.

A Squad Called Blitz 174, Crunch Bunch 102

Blitz had won the last two meetings in this Bay Area series, and Eddie came in with one obvious fix: Joe Burrow in for Jaxson Dart, who had already been cut. He made it, and Burrow threw for 31. It didn’t matter.

Blitz had four players at 20 or better, and no lineup on Eddie’s roster was catching that. Purdy threw for 42. Bijan Robinson ran for 34, twice his projection. Drake London and Harold Fannin Jr. added 24 and 21. The Masterminds’ 167 from Week 2 lasted exactly one week as the season high.

Thien has run this franchise since 2023 and finished ninth, fifth and fifth, and it hasn’t cracked the top four in the last five years. A roster that scores 174 with a 39-point quarterback on the bench isn’t built for fifth. It’s too early for verdicts, and I’m tempted anyway.

The call that hurt Eddie was at running back, where Kyle Monangai started and scored 3 while Jaylen Warren ran for 19 on the bench. It was the worst lineup call in the league this week, and it didn’t decide anything. The best lineup the Bunch owned scores 154 and still loses by 20.

City of Angels Masterminds 147, Jail Yard Boyz 75

The preview picked the Boyz on history. They had won the last three meetings, scoring 147, 151 and 170. This time Dak Prescott didn’t need another 41. He threw for 24, and the Masterminds scored 146.9, within a rounding error of the 147 the Boyz once beat them with, and won by 72.

The Boyz didn’t lose at one position. They lost everywhere. Victor had switched to Drake Maye at quarterback, and Maye threw for 6 against a projection of 24, the furthest any player in the league fell short of his number. Justin Herbert threw for 17 on the bench, so the switch cost 11, which barely registers in a 72-point loss. Six Boyz starters finished at 6 or less. Ja’Marr Chase caught 20, and no other starter got past 12.

The Masterminds didn’t need a star. Prescott, James Cook III and Davante Adams all landed between 17 and 24, and the Vikings defense added 18, most of what won Marcus the Pot.

Philadelphia Phreaks 99, Custom J 90

This was a rematch of December’s semifinal, which Custom J won 130 to 119, and it came down to the tight end slot. At midweek Ping had Dallas Goedert there, doubtful and projecting zero, a starting spot with nothing in it. By Sunday Goedert was out and Kenyon Sadiq, the round 8 rookie, was in. Sadiq caught 20 on a projection of 7. The Phreaks won by 9, so Sadiq covered the margin twice by himself.

Josh had a fix of his own on the bench and didn’t make it. The preview said Tony Pollard belonged in the lineup. Pollard ran for 12 on the bench while TreVeyon Henderson started and scored 3, and Terry McLaurin’s 17 sat behind Josh Downs’s 10. Those calls cost 15 points in a game Custom J lost by 9. The draft was the computer’s. The lineup was Josh’s.

So the league’s favorite storyline holds for another week: the roster a computer drafted lost to the roster an Eagles fan built around his team, though the Eagles had little to do with it. Ping’s five Eagles starters gave him 26 between them, the Eagles defense finished at minus 2, and Jahmyr Gibbs, a Detroit Lion, carried the Phreaks with 38. The computer has no comment. It also lost its best running back the same afternoon, which is where the Trainer’s Room starts.

Battle Angel 108, LA Buffy 100

These are the two franchises with the worst five-year records in the league, and the Angels came in 0-4. The preview picked them anyway, because Will’s lineup was already the best version of itself and nobody else’s was. He started exactly the lineup the projections wanted, and it held up.

Roger lost this on the lineup page. Jordan Addison caught 18 on his bench while Tre Tucker started and caught 6. Swap those two and Buffy wins by 3. His calls cost 11 points in the closest game of the week.

The quarterback call will get more attention, and it mattered less. In Week 2, Patrick Mahomes beat Matthew Stafford by about half a point, 38.8 to 38.25, with Stafford on the bench. This week Mahomes threw for 22 and Stafford threw for 29 on the bench. Start Stafford and Buffy still loses by a point and a half. The receiver call decided the game.

The Angels won by 8 and finished fifth in scoring, so their first win came with a second one attached. They went from 0-4 to 2-4 in one Sunday. Kyren Williams and Bryce Young each put up 19, and Javonte Williams added 17.

Heroes and Zeros

The final scores tell you who won. This section covers the individual swings behind them: the heroes are players who blew past anything a manager could reasonably expect, and the zeros are healthy starters who were supposed to carry a lineup and gave nothing back.

Heroes. Bijan’s 34 was 17 points above his projection, the most by any starter. The only player who beat his number by more was Darnold, by 18, from the Blitz bench, and that tells you about Blitz’s week. It was also a tight end week, with George Kittle’s 23 for Gang Green leading four tight ends at 20 or better: Kittle, Bowers, Fannin and Sadiq. Two of them decided games. Bowers’s return covered 12 of the Monkeys’ 29-point margin, and Sadiq outscored the Phreaks’ margin twice.

The waiver wire finally paid this week, mostly to benches. Shough was the one who started: 5 dollars, 34 points. Darnold, a free Blitz pickup before Week 1, threw for 39 behind Purdy. Raymond, last week’s biggest bid, caught 18 behind Zay Flowers. A week ago, every claim that made a lineup scored 7 or less. Evan spent 17 of the league’s 19 dollars on Wednesday. The 5 on Shough bought 34 points. The other 12 bought a benched running back, a benched defense and a kicker who didn’t last until Sunday.

Zeros. Jadarian Price, the eighth pick of the draft, followed a 5 in Week 2 with a 1 for Gang Green. Tetairoa McMillan, a Bunch keeper, caught 3 against a projection of 12. Jonathan Taylor won last week’s Pot with 27 out of the flex and ran for 8 this time. Jalen Hurts threw for 14 on a projection of 25, on Monday night, for the one GM in the league who started five Eagles. Three started defenses finished at minus 2: the Eagles, the Bengals and the 49ers.

The one mercy is that no zero cost anyone a game. Price’s owner lost by 29, Taylor’s and McMillan’s games were decided by 72, and Hurts’s team won anyway. The lineup page did all the damage this week.

Manager of the Week

Rosters get built in August, but games get won on the lineup page. This award measures the one thing a manager fully controls on Sunday: his score against what the lineup the projections wanted would have scored.

Manager of the Week: Evan, Chunky Monkeys. His calls gained 11 points, the most in the league, and every one of them came from Burden over Stevenson. Shough and Bowers were what the projections wanted anyway, so they don’t count toward it. Complaints about the commissioner winning an award in his own league can be filed with the commissioner.

Nothing to decide. Will, Greg, Marcus and Victor each started exactly the lineup the projections wanted. Victor’s is the one to feel bad about. He did what the projections said, and the projections missed on the Boyz by 52. Thien gained 4 and Ping lost 1.

Calls that cost. Eddie’s cost 16, the most in the league, and all of it was Monangai over Warren. Josh’s cost 15 and Roger’s cost 11, and those were the only two sets of calls this week that decided a game.

The Trainer’s Room

In a keeper league, an injury isn’t just one bad Sunday. It lands on the five players a manager built his roster around, it follows the franchise into next summer’s keeper decisions, and it sends half the league to Wednesday’s wire. Five keepers picked up a new tag since midweek, and one of them is gone for the year.

De’Von Achane, Custom J. Torn ACL on his third carry Sunday, out for the season. He had been a Custom J keeper since 2024 and gave the team 2 on a projection of 17 before he went down. A late-September tear leaves an outside chance he’s ready for Week 1 next year, so next summer’s keeper decision turns into a medical question. For now Pollard is the fill-in, and Jonah Coleman, the round 13 rookie, is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and can’t come back before Week 7. Custom J is the obvious bidder at running back this week.

Josh Allen, Gang Green. Questionable after a 19-point day and a helmet to the left knee late in the game. His coach says he isn’t concerned, and early reads call it a bruise rather than structural damage. Allen has been a Gang Green keeper since 2022, and his backup has thrown for 41 and 26 from the bench the last two weeks. Of all the quarterback injuries in the league, this is the one nobody needs to panic about.

Justin Jefferson, Phreaks. Ankle sprain. Imaging came back clean and he could play in Week 4, though the more cautious read of the tape says high ankle, which usually costs two to three weeks and dents production for a while after he returns. He has been a Phreaks keeper every year since 2021, and he caught 4 before he left. Ping’s list is longer than that. Puka Nacua missed his second straight game with a hip, and the Rams are hopeful but noncommittal about Week 4. Goedert missed Sunday with the knee sprain and is expected to miss Week 4 too. Baker Mayfield, the backup quarterback, is out at least three weeks with a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand.

Travis Etienne Jr., Angels. A keeper who aggravated his hamstring and will miss time, with no timeline yet and injured reserve still possible. Will has the depth for it: both Williamses started beside him and scored 17 or better.

Breece Hall, Masterminds. A keeper, week-to-week with a quad strain, and likely out in Week 4. The MRI was better than feared. The back who takes over the Jets backfield, Braelon Allen, is sitting on Gang Green’s bench, so Marcus won’t find the handcuff on the wire. Caleb Williams, the Masterminds’ backup quarterback, is still on a three-to-four-week clock with the hamstring strain from Week 2.

The rest. Nico Collins, a Buffy keeper, missed his second straight game with a mild hamstring strain, returned to practice Wednesday, and has a decent chance to play in Week 4. Rico Dowdle sat out for Blitz with a toe, and Jalen Coker left with what looks like a mild quad strain and is questionable. Mike Evans is day-to-day for Custom J with a rib injury, and even if he plays, receivers with rib injuries tend to lose snaps and targets. Jayden Daniels is back at practice for the Angels, limited, in an elbow brace and with no surgery, and could return in Week 4, though the cautious read says Week 6.

Back. Bowers played for the first time this season, and Mayer, the 15-dollar fill-in, goes back to the bench. Flowers played through his hamstring for Gang Green, and Darnold came back from a glute injury and threw for 39 from a bench.

Tidbits

A few things that didn’t decide a game but will come up at the draft table anyway.

The Monkeys have won Week 3 every year since 2021. The Masterminds had lost it every year since 2021. Both streaks were live on Sunday, and only one of them survived.

Blitz and the Masterminds both won by 72, in the same week, four-tenths of a point apart.

Blitz has now beaten the Bunch three straight times.

Ping beat Josh in the Stanford game, and Evan, the third Stanford GM, won his.

The family went 1-3. Evan won and Victor lost. The brothers, Josh and Eddie, both lost, and both are 2-4.

This Week’s Pot 

Week 3 paid the highest combined score from a starting kicker and defense, and the City of Angels Masterminds (Marcus Moore) take it with 29: Brandon Aubrey kicked for 11 and the Vikings defense scored 18. Marcus switched from the Texans to the Vikings this week, a week after the Vikings scored 15 on his bench, and the switch was worth 10. He didn’t need it. Aubrey plus the Texans’ 8 still wins at 19, with the Boyz and the Bunch tied for second at 12. The Monkeys, who spent 6 dollars on this Pot, finished ninth with 4.

The standings count the game plus a second result for finishing in the top or bottom half of the week’s scoring. The Monkeys went 2-0 and sit alone at 5-1, even though three teams have outscored them. Blitz, the Masterminds and Gang Green are 4-2. Blitz leads the league in points at 446, and the Masterminds and Gang Green are separated by a tenth of a point, 425.4 to 425.3. ESPN still lists Gang Green third, because head-to-head is the first tiebreaker and Gang Green won their Week 1 meeting. The Phreaks are 3-3. Custom J, the Bunch, the Angels, Buffy and the Boyz are 2-4, and the Boyz have scored 263 points, 60 fewer than anyone else.

Next week

The Monkeys, 5-1, host Custom J, 2-4. That puts the commissioner against the roster the computer drafted for his cousin Josh, now playing without its best running back. The Monkeys lead that series 8-4 over the last five years.

Blitz hosts the Boyz in the Bay Area division, the best score of Week 3 against the worst, in a series the Boyz lead 8-4. Gang Green visits the newly revived Angels in the Road division, with Allen’s knee the question. The Masterminds host the Phreaks, Hall probably out on one side and Jefferson and Nacua uncertain on the other, and Buffy visits the Bunch. Picks come in the preview.