Week 4 Preview: Ollie Gordon Comes Home

By Mel Alper, CTDB Analyst

Ollie Gordon has spent September getting passed around this league like a casserole dish. He spent last season with the Phreaks. This year, Blitz took him in the fifth round on draft night only to be cut ten days later. On Wednesday, GM Ping paid 31 dollars to bring him home, the biggest bid this league has seen all year — the prodigal son returns.

What changed was a knee in Miami. De’Von Achane tore his ACL on Sunday, and four of Wednesday’s eight claims were Dolphins: Gordon and Jaylen Wright to Ping, Malik Washington to Marcus, Chris Bell to Josh. More than half the league put in bids for Ollie but Ping won out. In fact, by Wednesday morning Ping owned both halves of the Miami backfield, and Josh owned a questionable receiver — sorry Josh.

Josh’s reward for his week is a matchup against the 5-1 Monkeys. The Monkeys are 5-1 and alone in first and with Bowers back, they seem to be primed for a run. Custom J, on the other hand, is 2-4, down a keeper, and projected to score 117 by ESPN, the lowest number in the league. My picks went 3-2 last week, and one of the three was a pick against Custom J (sorry again Josh).

Matchup of the week, and the Custom J watch: Chunky Monkeys vs Custom J

Custom J gets watched every week because Claude built him and honestly, AI eradicating humans seems like a lower probability these days. The computer drafted for Josh, and every Sunday is a referendum on Claude (sources say, it was even Fable at work). The Monkeys won it in 2021, 2022 and 2025, Custom J in 2023 and 2024. Across all twelve meetings in that span the Monkeys lead 8-4, and they have won the last four.

Custom J comes in this week hurt, and the hurt runs past Sunday. Achane, a keeper since 2024, is done for the year. A late-September tear leaves an outside chance he’s ready for Week 1 next season, which turns next summer’s keeper call into a medical question. Ladd McConkey, also a keeper, is questionable with a new foot problem. D’Andre Swift landed on Thursday’s report with a knee but was back at practice Friday. Mike Evans has the ribs, the kind of injury receivers play through on fewer snaps and fewer targets, and the cautious read says sit him.

The projections want Terry McLaurin in for TreVeyon Henderson, though McLaurin turned up Friday with a hamstring of his own. His game kicks off early, in London, so Josh will know before the rest of the slate. The projections also want the Chiefs defense over the Bears, which is a sentence with a history. Josh claimed the Bears for a dollar two Sundays ago, dropped them for the Chiefs four days later, and claimed the Bears back on Wednesday for another dollar. The gap is two-tenths of a point, so this is about principle, not math. Keep the Chiefs.

The Monkeys’ lineup is stout — they made some last-minute changes at K and DST. The front office says the staffer on the improvement plan has been moved off lineup duty so things should be smoother going forward.

Pick: the Monkeys, healthy, set and favored by 12 against three questionable starters and a keeper on injured reserve. Two straight weeks now the preview has gone against the roster the computer built.

A Squad Called Blitz vs Jail Yard Boyz

Last week’s best score against last week’s worst, in the Bay Area division. Blitz put up 174, the season high. The Boyz put up 75 and sit 60 points behind everyone else in points for. The series says ignore all of that. The Boyz own it 8-4 over the last five years and have won the last two meetings, including last year’s playoff game, 151 to 120.

Blitz has scored more points than anyone this season and has its whole lineup set the way the projections want it, with one catch. Jalen Coker is questionable with a quad and isn’t expected to play, so Thien should have Emeka Egbuka, at 9.5, ready to slide in. On the other side, Bucky Irving is questionable with a glute, but he practiced on a limited basis, which usually means he plays.

Pick: Blitz, by about 10 on the projections. History is nice to have, but it doesn’t play receiver.

Battle Angel vs Gang Green

The widest projection on the board, Gang Green by 17, in a Road-division game between two franchises that have split eleven meetings over five years almost evenly, 6-5 Greg.

The Angels’ case is a waiver quarterback. Bryce Young projects at 27, within a point of Josh Allen, for a team that claimed him off the wire two Sundays ago when Jayden Daniels’ elbow went. Daniels is out again, and the cautious read says Week 6, so the job is Young’s for now. He plays Sunday night against Detroit. Jakobi Meyers is questionable again with the thumb he has played through every week.

Greg’s call is in the flex, where the projections want Braelon Allen, at 11.9, over DJ Moore at 10.8. Moore has since come off the injury report, so this is a matchup call, not a health call. With Breece Hall out, Allen inherits most of the Jets backfield, against a soft Bears run defense.

Pick: Gang Green. Seventeen points is a lot of ground for one waiver quarterback to cover.

City of Angels Masterminds vs Philadelphia Phreaks

The Masterminds are 4-2 and lead Gang Green on points for by a tenth of a point, 425.4 to 425.3. It buys them nothing. Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, Gang Green won the Week 1 meeting, and ESPN lists Greg third. The Phreaks have won the last three meetings in this series by 48, 67 and 47 points, the latest 152 to 106, and ESPN has them by 3, the tightest projection of the week.

Then look at who’s actually playing. Marcus is without Breece Hall, a keeper, ruled out with a quad strain that usually costs about two weeks and carries re-injury risk. The back who replaces him in New York sits on Gang Green’s bench. The projections want Tyler Warren at tight end and Alvin Kamara in the flex, and the Masterminds’ lineup carries no injury tags at all.

Ping’s carries three. Puka Nacua, a keeper, is expected back from the groin, though the more cautious read is that it lingers all season. Kenyon Sadiq practiced on a limited basis and should play. Justin Jefferson is the problem. He has been a Phreaks keeper every year since 2021, he didn’t practice Wednesday, he wasn’t spotted Thursday, and the cautious read of the tape says high ankle, which usually means more than one week and a dip after. Swap his 15 for a bench receiver’s 9 and that 3-point edge becomes a 3-point deficit.

Pick: the Phreaks, narrowly. They have won this game by 46 or more three years running, and Nacua’s return covers part of what Jefferson’s ankle costs.

Crunch Bunch vs LA Buffy

These two spent last December together in the consolation ladder, twice, and Buffy won both, the second one 93 to 41. That made three straight for Buffy in a series the Bunch opened 4-0.

For the third straight week the preview has a note for Eddie about Kyle Monangai, and this week Thursday night made the call before he could. Jaylen Warren, projected at 15, played the Browns on Thursday and scored 14 on the Bunch bench. That’s locked. Monangai, projected at 8, still has to play, so he needs 14 just to make the lineup look right. Last week the same pair went 19 to 3 the wrong way.

There is one way Monangai pays off. He’s D’Andre Swift’s backup in Chicago, and Swift, who plays for Eddie’s brother Josh, has that knee. Swift practiced Friday, so don’t count on it. Quinshon Judkins already put 19 on the board Thursday, so Eddie starts Sunday ahead.

Buffy’s lineup is already the best version of itself by the projections, with two questions at receiver. Nico Collins, a keeper, is expected back from the hamstring. DeVonta Smith, another keeper, sat out Thursday’s practice with his. Roger’s best insurance, DK Metcalf, already played Thursday and scored 14 on the bench, so the backup plan is Tre Tucker.

Pick: Buffy. Three straight in the series, nothing left on the bench, and Eddie hoping Monangai can outrun a number that’s already in.

Starters and bench

This section is for the calls that can still be made. Thursday took some off the table. Warren’s 14, Metcalf’s 14, Denzel Boston’s 11 and KC Concepcion’s 9 all went up on benches and are staying there.

Most of what’s left is in the games above. Eddie has two more: Juwan Johnson over Tucker Kraft at tight end, 8.6 to 6.9, and the Jaguars defense over the Panthers, who draw Detroit on Sunday night, opposite Eddie’s own Amon-Ra St. Brown. Victor should get Malik Nabers back in over Jaylen Waddle, 11.4 to 9.5. Ping’s projections want Dobbins over the 31-dollar man, 9.6 to 8.0. The Monkeys, Buffy and the Angels are within a point of their best lineups, and Blitz is too if Coker plays.

Atlanta and New Orleans play Monday night, which leaves Bijan Robinson and Drake London for Blitz, Chris Olave for the Angels and, if Evan flips the coin his way, Shough for the Monkeys as the last word of the week.

Transactions

The hole was in Miami, and Wednesday’s run went straight at it. Five teams claimed and five stood pat, and the run cost 71 dollars. Ping spent 48 of it, as much as Gang Green has spent all season, and at 66 for the year he is now the league’s biggest spender.

Gordon was 31 of the 48 and Wright the other 17. To make room, Ping let go of Devaughn Vele, the receiver he bought for 11 in Week 2, and Baker Mayfield, his backup quarterback, who is out for weeks with a dislocated thumb. Read: Ping didn’t buy a running back. He bought the whole Dolphins backfield, both halves, the week Josh lost it. The early word is a committee, Wright on passing downs and Gordon in short yardage, against a Vikings defense nobody wants to start into. Week 4 is the audition.

Marcus paid 10 for Malik Washington, another Dolphin, and dropped Rashid Shaheed. Josh paid 8 for Chris Bell, a fourth, plus a dollar for a kicker, Dominic Zvada, and a dollar to bring the Bears back. Victor’s Steelers defense cost 2 and returned 3 on Thursday. Evan spent a dollar Wednesday on Shrader and went back Thursday for the Ravens defense at 3.

This Week’s Pot 💰

Week 4 pays the waiver hero: the highest-scoring starter who wasn’t drafted or kept this year. Last year’s Week 4 paid for wide receiver catches and went to the Phreaks, so nobody is defending this one. The Angels’ Young is the clear favorite: at 27, he has the best projection of any qualifying starter by a wide margin. The closest challenger sits on a bench: Shough, a 5-dollar claim, projects at 24.8 behind Lawrence on the commissioner’s roster. Start him, and the Pot becomes a two-quarterback race between waiver adds. Sit him, and it’s Young’s to lose.