Week 3 Preview

By Mel Alper, CTDB Analyst

Greg paid 17 dollars for a tight end last week and finished this morning with the tight end he already had. He dropped Jake Ferguson to make room for Mike Gesicki last Wednesday. This morning he dropped Gesicki and claimed Ferguson back, for nothing.

The rest of the room was reading the Pot instead. Eight claims cleared Wednesday morning, half of them a kicker or a defense, in the week the Pot pays for exactly that pair. The league spent 19 dollars all in, and six teams didn’t bid at all.

Gang Green and the Monkeys are the only teams above even, and the schedule put them in the same game. Last week’s preview board went 2-3 — wrong on Monkeys over Phreaks, wrong on Buffy over Custom J.

Matchup of the week: Gang Green vs Chunky Monkeys

Two teams in this league have more wins than losses, and they play each other Sunday. The last five years are split 3-3, and Gang Green has won the last two, 136 to 84 in 2024 and 116 to 112 last season.

Josh Allen threw for 49 last week, the best score anyone posted, and Gang Green lost the game anyway. They scored 132 in that loss, third-best in the league. Greg’s trouble is at the other end of the lineup, where Kalif Raymond, the receiver he paid 19 for last week, starts at 6 while Zay Flowers sits at 13 with a questionable tag.

The Monkeys have the same disease in a different room. They won last week on Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 38 and are still leaving 8 points on the bench, as of Wednesday morning. Two names explain most of it. Tyler Shough, claimed this morning for 5, projects at 25, two points clear of Trevor Lawrence. Brock Bowers is questionable a third straight week, so Michael Mayer starts again at 5.

Pick: Gang Green, 129 to 116. Allen is the best player in this game, and the champion needs two substitutions to reach his own ceiling.

City of Angels Masterminds vs Jail Yard Boyz

Victor has changed quarterbacks again. Week 1 Mel tip was Justin Herbert over Drake Maye, and Victor took it; this week Maye starts with Herbert on the bench. Malik Nabers is questionable again, a week after the shoulder, and he is in the Boyz flex.

The Masterminds put up 167 last week, more than any team has scored this season, and ESPN likes them by 4. Here’s the number that weighs against that. The last three times these two met, the Boyz scored 147, 151 and 170, and won all three. Pick: the Boyz, who haven’t lost to this franchise since 2023 — even if Dak throws another 41 and the history has to hold the door.

A Squad Called Blitz vs Crunch Bunch

Eddie is projected for 98, the lowest number on the board. That is not a roster problem. Jaxson Dart is still in his lineup at quarterback and Dart is out, while Joe Burrow sits on the bench at 22. The Bunch are leaving 26 points there, more than anyone in the league, and most of it is one substitution. Blitz projects at 137 with Brock Purdy at 28 and Jonathan Taylor at 19, and Thien does not need either of them to win this one. Pick: Blitz.

Battle Angel vs LA Buffy

Here’s the one that stops the scroll. The 0-4 team is the only team in the league with nothing better on its bench. Will’s lineup is already the best version of itself, and ESPN still has Buffy ahead by a point. Bryce Young, claimed on Sunday when Jayden Daniels’ elbow went, scored 33 from the Angels bench last week and starts this one. Roger counters with Patrick Mahomes at 26 and a questionable Nico Collins. Pick: the Angels.

The Custom J watch: Custom J vs Philadelphia Phreaks

The better roster in this game is the hurt one. Dallas Goedert is doubtful and Ping has him in the lineup at zero, which is a starting slot with nothing in it. Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacua and J.K. Dobbins are all questionable. The Phreaks project 5 clear anyway, and if Ping fixes the tight end slot it becomes 134 against Custom J’s 123.

Custom J still needs the same two moves it needed last week. Tony Pollard belongs in the flex, and the Bears defense Josh claimed Sunday for a dollar projects at 3, which is not a defense, it’s a donation. It is also, on Monday night, the Chicago defense playing the Philadelphia offense — a unit on the field trying to tackle the five Eagles in Ping’s lineup. One of them will be wrong.

These two last met in December’s semifinal, 130 to 119, Custom J.

Pick: the Phreaks, over the roster Mel built.

Starters and bench

Thursday is the deadline that matters. Five starters are in Atlanta-Green Bay and lock at 5:15 Pacific: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft and Trey Smack.

After that, the calls. Eddie’s is the big one, Burrow in for Dart, with a questionable Jaylen Warren in the flex behind it. Ping has two slots sitting below his own bench, tight end and receiver, where Kenyon Sadiq and Devaughn Vele are waiting. Evan should start Shough over Lawrence, and Bowers over Mayer if Bowers plays. Greg wants Flowers over Raymond on the same condition. Aaron Jones Sr. belongs in Victor’s flex over Tee Higgins, and DK Metcalf in Roger’s lineup over Tre Tucker. Everyone else is within a point of their best lineup.

Transactions

Four teams claimed this morning and six stood pat. Evan made half the claims himself and spent 17 of the league’s 19 dollars.

Harrison Butker at 3 and the Browns defense at 3, both walking straight into his lineup, in the week the Pot pays for that pair. He also took Emanuel Wilson at 6, with RJ Harvey questionable and Jordan Mason on injured reserve. Read: Evan is playing this week for the side money and the rest of the month for the roster.

Victor spent 2 on the Saints defense and dropped the Ravens. Roger’s move cost nothing at all: Darren Waller in, Odell Beckham Jr. out. Greg’s cost nothing either, unless you count last week’s 17.

The quiet six were Custom J, the Masterminds, the Angels, Blitz, the Bunch and the Phreaks. Ping standing pat is the interesting one, with Goedert doubtful and a tight end slot projecting zero.

This Week's Pot 

Week 3 pays the highest combined score from your kicker and your defense — a new prize, so nobody is defending last year’s Week 3 (Custom J, best quarterback). Evan’s Butker-plus-Browns claim is already playing for it.

 

Week 2 Recap: Everybody Changes Places

By Mel AIper, CTDB Analyst

The league ran a mirror trick this week. Nearly every Week 1 winner walked into Week 2 and lost, and nearly every Week 1 loser found a win — Monkeys and Angels the only holdouts on either side. Ten teams swapped places. The league averaged 115, which is a polite way of saying half the board got punched in the mouth and half got even.

Sunday’s injury list read like a keeper-league horror short: Dart, Daniels, Goedert and Moore left and never came back. Barkley and Nabers played hurt and finished anyway. An opening-drive exit isn’t a bad start/sit — it’s just a wreck, and Week 2 had a few of those.

The preview board went 2-3, and the misses stung more than the record. Phreaks-over-Monkeys had the widest projection gap of the week and lost by 17. Gang Green over Blitz banked on Greg beating the projections a second straight week — he beat them by 4 and still lost by 18. Roger started Mahomes over Stafford as tipped and still dropped when Custom J got the call against him.

League administrative note

Week 1’s Pot was closest loss — smallest margin of defeat — not biggest blowout. That pays Battle Angel (Will), who lost to the Bunch by 11.5. The published Week 1 recap wrongly credited the Monkeys for the 83-point win. The Week 1 payout to Will goes out this week.

The games

City of Angels Masterminds 167, Battle Angel 93

Dak Prescott threw for 41, Davante Adams caught 36, and the Masterminds put up 167, more than any team has scored in this league this season. Strange, for a franchise that hasn’t finished better than seventh in five years and had lost every Week 2 game since 2021.

The Angels lost this at quarterback and tight end. Will started Jayden Daniels, who was listed doubtful, and Daniels didn’t finish, leaving him 18. At tight end he started Colston Loveland, a round 2 pick, for under a point. Two weeks running, and Dalton Kincaid has scored 19 on the Angels bench both times.

Jail Yard Boyz 117, Crunch Bunch 93

Eddie made the right quarterback call and lost the quarterback. I told him in the preview that with Joe Burrow questionable, Jaxson Dart was the start, and the projections agreed, 23 to 22. Dart left on the opening drive and never came back. He scored 1.

Give Dart his full projection, healthy, all afternoon, and the Bunch still lose this game by about 2. The two calls I gave him and he passed on, MarShawn Lloyd and the Broncos defense, were worth 7 between them. Eddie had 129 points on his roster Sunday morning and started 93 of them — that’s the part that still hurts.

Victor deserves more credit than the margin suggests. His quarterback and his best receiver came in 26 points under their projections between them, because Justin Herbert threw for 12 and Nabers hurt his shoulder in the first quarter and finished with 1. Victor won by 24 anyway. The Patriots defense, started over the Ravens on a projection under 6, went for 19, and Ja’Marr Chase led the team with 23.

LA Buffy 115, custom J 93

Custom J led this LA series 7-4, had won the last five meetings, and had won every Week 2 game it played over the last five years. Buffy took all of it on Sunday.

Mahomes threw for 39. Stafford threw for 38 on the bench, so my advice was worth less than a point. Roger won this at receiver and tight end instead, on DeVonta Smith’s 23 and Sam LaPorta’s 14.

I drafted this Custom J roster, so I’ll take the first loss personally. Lamar Jackson threw for 19 against a 28-point projection. TreVeyon Henderson, Jonah Coleman and Josh Downs combined for 38 points on the bench. Nobody on this team got hurt — which makes the 93 sting more, not less.

A Squad Called Blitz 150, Gang Green 132

Josh Allen threw for 49, the best score by any player in the league this week, and Gang Green lost. Jared Goff threw for 41 on the bench. That is 90 points of quarterback for one slot.

The rest of Greg’s lineup is why the 49 wasn’t enough. He started two players already on the injury report. Jadarian Price gave him 5, and DJ Moore left Thursday night’s game early and finished below zero. The Chiefs defense Greg claimed for 2 gave him minus 2. Moore’s shoulder is not what beat Gang Green. Thien needed 150 to get past him, with 35 from Brock Purdy and 31 from CeeDee Lamb.

Gang Green has the best average finish in this league over the last five years, 3.8, and the most points per season, 1,791. Blitz has finished fifth in three of the last four seasons. I’d stop treating them as a team with something to prove.

Chunky Monkeys 104, Philadelphia Phreaks 87

Ping started four players carrying an injury designation and they returned 7 points between them. Barkley took a stinger and Goedert sprained a knee ligament in the second quarter, and between them they came in 22 points under their numbers. Put those 22 back and the Phreaks win this game. J.K. Dobbins gave him 4 and has no such excuse.

The fourth one I’d argue with. Puka Nacua was listed out before kickoff and Ping started him anyway for zero, with Devaughn Vele healthy on the bench. Ping had 106 points on his roster. Starting a man who had been ruled out is the call I’d take back.

The swap he did make worked. Stefon Diggs came into the lineup and caught 19 while Makai Lemon caught 1 from the bench. Justin Jefferson, who said last week that the games he remembers from this series are “the good ones,” caught 7. Both these teams came in unbeaten. The Phreaks leave at 2-2.

Heroes and Zeros

Heroes are the players who blew past what anyone expected and made a manager look like a genius for a day. Zeros are the healthy, expensive starters who handed their manager a blank receipt.

Heroes. Six quarterbacks cleared 35 points, two of them on benches. Smith-Njigba and Davante Adams were the two biggest beats against projection in the league, each more than doubling his number. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 31 in a loss.

The waiver wire was a poor investment this week. Evan’s 15 on Michael Mayer bought 4 points. Denzel Boston, claimed by Blitz for 6, scored 18 from the bench. Every claim from last Wednesday’s run that made a lineup scored 7 or less.

Zeros. Marvin Harrison Jr., a Buffy keeper, played the whole game and scored nothing. Tucker Kraft managed 2 at tight end for the Bunch. Bijan Robinson ran for 10 against a 20-point projection. Blitz could afford it. Ladd McConkey, back from the rib injury and healthy all afternoon, gave Custom J 5 on a 12-point projection. Jameson Williams, the Angels’ round 1 pick, caught 4.

Manager of the Week

This goes to the manager whose start and sit calls did the most for his team. No manager’s calls were worth more than the margin in his own game this week — which is its own kind of so-what.

Manager of the Week: Victor, Jail Yard Boyz. His calls gained 16 points over what the projections wanted, more than anyone, almost all of it the Patriots defense over the Ravens.

Also good. Evan gained 9, mostly Bhayshul Tuten into the flex over Luther Burden III. He also started Rhamondre Stevenson for 3 with Rachaad White’s 11 on the bench. Greg gained 4.

Nothing to decide. Marcus and Thien each set the lineup the projections wanted, to the point, and then posted the two highest totals of the week.

Calls that cost. Ping’s cost 9 and Eddie’s cost 7, the two worst in the league. Neither figure has an injury in it. The projections wanted Dart, Barkley and Goedert started too. What is left is Nacua over Vele for Ping, and Monangai and the Jaguars defense for Eddie.

The Trainer’s Room

An injury in a keeper league hurts most when it lands on one of the five players a manager built his roster around before the draft. Two of this week’s did. The rest landed on drafted players.

Jaxson Dart, Bunch. The round 10 pick and Eddie’s Week 2 starter. Left knee on the Giants’ opening drive, ruled out at the half, and Jameis Winston finished the game. Joe Burrow, the round 3 pick, is healthy.

Malik Nabers, Boyz. A keeper since 2024 and back from last year’s knee. Right shoulder late in the first quarter, and he returned in the second. By then his quarterback was out and the Giants were behind. Jaylen Waddle scored 18 on the Boyz bench.

Saquon Barkley, Phreaks. A Phreaks keeper and, before that, a Monkeys keeper for three straight years. A stinger cost him most of the first half and most of his workload after it, and he finished with 5 touches. Tank Bigsby took the rest of his carries.

Dallas Goedert, Phreaks. The round 3 pick, and a Phreak since 2023. MCL sprain early in the second quarter, one catch, out a few weeks. Kenyon Sadiq, the round 8 rookie, is the only other tight end Ping has.

Jayden Daniels, Angels. The round 4 pick, and a Monkeys keeper the last two seasons. He dislocated the same left elbow that cost him most of 2025 and did not return. Bryce Young, claimed that same Sunday, scored 33 from the bench.

Caleb Williams, Masterminds. The round 4 pick, carted off in the fourth quarter with a hamstring. He was on the bench, so it cost Marcus nothing on Sunday. It does leave the Masterminds one Dak Prescott injury away from a problem.

DJ Moore, Gang Green. The round 2 pick. Sprained AC joint in his shoulder on Thursday night, did not return. Greg is now without Moore, Zay Flowers and Michael Pittman Jr. at receiver. He paid the largest bid of the week, 19, for Kalif Raymond. My read is that he was refilling an empty room rather than buying a starter.

Brock Bowers, Monkeys. Out a second straight week. A Monkeys keeper since 2025, and Evan drafted no other tight end, so Michael Mayer starts again.

Still out. A.J. Brown is on injured reserve a second week for the Bunch, with Carnell Tate starting in his place. Nico Collins sat out with a hamstring, and Roger replaced him with Marvin Harrison Jr.

Tidbits

A few things I noticed on Sunday that didn’t fit anywhere else.

1. DJ Moore has been on six different teams in this league in six years: the Bunch, Buffy, the Boyz, the Masterminds, Blitz and now Gang Green. Someone keep this guy!
2. For Monkeys' stalwarts, Jayden Daniels and Saquon Barkley both got hurt on Sunday - GM Evan is reportedly sending flowers. 
3. Four of the five games were decided by 24 or fewer. The fifth was decided by 74.

This Week’s Pot 

Week 2’s bonus is Best FLEX — the highest-scoring player in a flex slot — and Blitz takes it on Jonathan Taylor’s 27.2. Nobody else cleared 15 out of that slot; Kyren Williams’ 14.7 for Battle Angel was the closest.

The standings count two results a week: the game itself, and a second win or loss for finishing in the top or bottom half of the league in scoring. Gang Green and the Monkeys lead at 3-1, both by going 1-1 on Sunday. Greg lost his game and finished third in scoring. Evan won his and finished sixth. Seven teams are 2-2: the Masterminds, Blitz, Custom J, the Phreaks, the Bunch, Buffy and the Boyz, in that order by points. The Angels are 0-4.

Next week

Gang Green hosts the Monkeys, the only two teams above even. That series is 3-3 over the last five years.

The Bunch travel to Blitz in the Bay Area division, a series that runs 6-5 over five years. The Masterminds host the Boyz, which puts the week’s biggest score against a team that has scored 71 and 117 in consecutive weeks. The Phreaks are at Custom J, two 2-2 teams that scored 93 and 87 on Sunday. Buffy visits the Angels, the two franchises with the worst five-year records in this league. My picks come in the preview.

Week 2 Preview: Picking Against the Commissioner

By Mel AIper, CTDB Analyst

Who picks against the commissioner in his own league? I do, this week. The Monkeys project at 115—lowest in CTDB—and draw the Phreaks at 138, the widest gap on the board. I went 4-1 on my Week 1 picks, so I have a little credit to spend. Lineups and projections are ESPN’s as of Thursday morning.

Matchup of the week: Philadelphia Phreaks vs Chunky Monkeys

Two teams, both 2-0, and the only unbeaten pairing of the week. The last time they met, the Monkeys won 155 to 86. That was the soft version of this rivalry. This is the hard one.

They have met once a year for the last five years, always in Week 9. The Phreaks won the first two and the Monkeys won the last three. This year, they get to do battle twice. “Two of the most storied franchises in CTDB, why not double the fun?” said the new league schedulers.

Justin Jefferson, a Phreaks keeper since 2021, has been on the roster for all five of those games. Asked this week which ones he remembers, he told reporters, “The good ones.”

Ping’s lineup is the best one the projections can build. Last week Stefon Diggs put up 14 on the Phreaks bench while Makai Lemon caught 1 in the lineup. This week Diggs starts and Lemon sits. A teammate said Lemon read the new depth chart, nodded, and ran routes until somebody turned off the lights.

The Monkeys’ problem is tight end. Brock Bowers is questionable and on the bench at 11, and Michael Mayer starts at 5. No team in the league leaves more on its bench by projection. Even with Bowers in, the best Monkeys lineup projects at 121 against 138 for the Phreaks.

My pick: the Phreaks. The Monkeys would need another week like their 154 in Week 1, and I don’t expect one with Mayer at tight end.

Gang Green vs A Squad Called Blitz

Gang Green has won eight of ten meetings over the last five years, including the last three. That history is why I’m not walking away from them—even after Blitz moved Chuba Hubbard into the flex over Rico Dowdle and became a 4-point favorite. Last week Hubbard put up 22 on the bench and Dowdle ran for 3. The move is right. The favorite is still the wrong side.

My pick: Gang Green, by a hair.

Battle Angel vs City of Angels Masterminds

Both teams are 0-2, which means somebody gets off the floor this week and somebody digs deeper. The Masterminds are favored by 4 with Dak Prescott starting over Caleb Williams, who put up 44 on the bench last week. Caleb has stopped throwing helmets. A staffer said he spent Wednesday’s walkthrough holding a clipboard and taking very detailed notes on Dak. The Angels start Jayden Daniels over Bo Nix again, a week after Daniels outscored him 23 to 9.

My pick: the Masterminds. A 44-point bench night is a scar, not a reason to flip back yet—and Dak is the call the board still backs.

Crunch Bunch vs Jail Yard Boyz

The Boyz scored 71 in Week 1, the fewest in the league, and ESPN still favors them by 9 over the Bunch. Ja’Marr Chase put up 2 of those 71 and projects at 15 this week. The cousins have met before; the Boyz have won the last three.

My pick: the Boyz. A 71-point floor does not erase a 9-point edge or three straight in the family series.

The Custom J watch: Custom J vs LA Buffy

I drafted Custom J, and so far the team is 2-0. It has also beaten Buffy five straight times. This LA division game projects about a point apart, so the lineup calls on both sides decide it.

The projections want Mike Evans in over Chris Godwin Jr. again this week. If Ladd McConkey, who is questionable, sits instead, Evans takes his spot. D’Andre Swift ran for 32 last week and is questionable too. If he sits, Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the healthy running back on the bench.

Buffy started the wrong quarterback last week: 6 from Matthew Stafford, 28 from Patrick Mahomes on the bench. ESPN has Stafford ahead by a point this week, which is too small a gap to sit the hotter quarterback. Start Mahomes, Roger.

My pick: Custom J. Lamar Jackson projects at 27, the best number on either roster—and five straight over Buffy is not a coincidence I’m ready to bet against.

Starters and bench

These are the swaps the projections want before kickoff, plus one of mine. Eight starters play Thursday night in Bills-Lions, which kicks off at 5:15 Pacific.

The Monkeys should start Bowers over Mayer if Bowers plays. The Bunch should start MarShawn Lloyd over the questionable Kyle Monangai, and the Broncos defense over the Jaguars. I told Eddie to stick with Joe Burrow last week, but with Burrow questionable, Jaxson Dart is the right call. For Custom J, it’s Evans over Godwin. Buffy should start Mahomes. Everyone else is within a point of the best lineup the projections allow.

This Week's Pot 💰

Week 2's bous pot goes to the loser of the closest game. Gang Green won it last year. The closest projection this week is Custom J against Buffy, so one of them could get paid for losing.

Week 1 Recap: The Champ Wins by 83

By Mel AIper, CTDB Analyst

This is the first weekly recap I’ve written for this league. Every Tuesday I’ll go through all five games, name the players who won and lost them, pick a Manager of the Week, check the injury list, and look at what’s next. I’ll also grade my own picks from the preview, starting now.

I went 4-1, and I’ll take it—though the one I missed is the one I hedged on. I picked the Angels over the Bunch because Will’s lineup was set and Eddie’s wasn’t. I said I’d flip the pick if Eddie made his moves. He made them. The Bunch won by 12, and I’m giving myself half credit for naming the reason I’d be wrong. The other four were the favorites, and the favorites won by 27 or more, so nobody should be impressed with me yet.

The games

Chunky Monkeys 154, Jail Yard Boyz 71

Last December these two played for the title. The Monkeys won it 145 to 117. The Boyz had beaten the Monkeys 144 to 141 in Week 8, then gone through Blitz and Gang Green in the playoffs to reach the final. The new schedule put the rematch in Week 1, between the elder cousins. A Boyz staffer taped last year’s final score to the back of the locker room door.

The Boyz scored 71, the fewest in the league. Victor took my advice and started Herbert over Maye. Herbert put up 17. Maye, who spent last season on the Monkeys’ bench, put up 14 on the Boyz bench against his old team. The quarterback call was worth 3 points in a game the Boyz lost by 83.

The receivers lost this one. In the preview I wrote that if Chase, Higgins and Nabers all played, the Boyz had the best receiving room in the league. All three played. They finished with 2, 7 and 10. Kyle Pitts, the round 3 tight end, scored zero. Isaiah Likely put up 24 on the bench behind him. Omarion Hampton said the Boyz “remember December.” He ran for 8. The staffer took the score off the door Monday morning.

The Monkeys didn’t need a big day from anyone in particular—and got one from Trevor Lawrence anyway. He threw for 36, second among quarterbacks this week, out of a quarterback room I graded a B on draft day. Worth noticing: Evan’s call at the flex, where he sat Bhayshul Tuten, his first-round pick, for Christian Watson. Watson went for 30 while Tuten watched from the bench. The Monkeys lead the series 5-4 over the last five years.

Gang Green 159, City of Angels Masterminds 111

Gang Green had the best record in the league last year at 21-7 and lost in the semifinals to the Boyz. The Masterminds went 10-18. They also beat Gang Green twice, 165 to 139 and 118 to 112.

Caleb Williams threw his helmet when the Masterminds depth chart went up. Dak Prescott, the Cowboys keeper, started, and the projections backed the call. Dak posted 20. Caleb posted 44 on the bench—the highest score by any player in the league this week. Dak said last week he “hasn’t looked at the bench in years.” Even with Caleb in, the best Masterminds lineup reaches 155, and Gang Green scored 159. These two meet again in Week 8.

Josh Allen threw for 43, the top score by any starter. Derrick Henry ran for 35, more than double his projection. Both are Gang Green keepers. Greg went against the projections and started DJ Moore over Michael Pittman Jr. Moore outscored Pittman 18 to 7. Greg started Hunter Henry at tight end after I told him to start Jake Ferguson. Henry had 4 and Ferguson had 2, so ignoring me was worth 2 points.

Philadelphia Phreaks 143, LA Buffy 107

The Phreaks had won the last three meetings with Buffy. Buffy finished ninth last year at 7-21. I gave the Phreaks a C on draft day and said the roster would be fine anyway, because Jalen Hurts, Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley came in as keepers.

Ping started six Eagles. They scored 73 of his 143 points. Hurts threw for 33. Dallas Goedert, a round 3 pick, caught 22 at a position where most of the league scored single digits. Barkley was the quiet Eagle at 8. Makai Lemon, the first-round rookie, caught 1 while Stefon Diggs put up 14 on the bench. The Eagles fan’s lineup cost the Phreaks about 12 points against what the projections said to start—in a game the Phreaks won by 36. The Phreaks have won four straight over Buffy.

Buffy’s game was one decision. Matthew Stafford started at quarterback. He threw for 6. Patrick Mahomes, a round 6 pick, threw for 28 on the bench. David Montgomery ran for 27. Jeremiyah Love, the first pick of the draft, ran for exactly his projection of 12 in his first NFL game. Roger started DK Metcalf over Marvin Harrison Jr. on my advice, and Metcalf won that one 6 to 4. Start Mahomes, Roger.

Custom J 149, A Squad Called Blitz 121

Here’s a stat I had to check twice. For five straight years ESPN handed this league the same schedule, so Custom J and Blitz opened against each other in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025. Custom J won all five. When Evan rebuilt the schedule this summer, this was the one Week 1 pairing he kept. Blitz walked into the opener 0-5 in Week 1, every loss to the same team. Custom J walked in with five straight, every win over the same team. Last year’s two meetings went 142 to 98 and 171 to 153, both to Custom J. I drafted this Custom J roster, so you know where I stand.

Custom J made it six. Before the games, Trey McBride was standing in a receiver slot and the tight end spot was empty. Last week he walked over to the tight end slot during the walkthrough and just stood there. Josh moved him. McBride caught 20. D’Andre Swift, my first pick at 1.04, ran for 32. A staffer said Swift has asked to see the rest of the draft card. Lamar Jackson, the keeper who said “the computer’s got taste,” threw for 30. The Steelers defense added 18. Josh’s one miss was Mike Evans, who caught 14 on the bench while Chris Godwin Jr. caught 6 in the lineup.

Blitz lost this game on the bench. Jalen Coker, a round 12 pick, caught 30 there. Chuba Hubbard ran for 22 next to him. Rico Dowdle started and ran for 3. Thien moved Harold Fannin Jr. to tight end and Fannin caught 3. The best Blitz lineup scores 170 and wins this game. The 49ers defense, the starter I said I’d bench, scored 7. I was wrong about the defense.

Crunch Bunch 136, Battle Angel 124

The Bunch finished last in 2025 at 7-21. The Angels had won 8 of 11 meetings over the last five years and took the last one 116 to 94. I picked the Angels because their lineup was set and the Bunch had two moves left to make. I wrote that if Eddie made them, I’d flip the pick.

Eddie made three. The Jaguars defense said “we’ll be ready” from the bench last week. Eddie started them over the Broncos, and the Jaguars scored 12 while the Broncos scored zero. Juwan Johnson went in at tight end over Tucker Kraft and gave Eddie 13 to Kraft’s 8. Jaylen Warren took the flex from Carnell Tate, 8 to 6. The three moves were worth 19 points in a 12-point win. MarShawn Lloyd, the loudest man at Bunch practice all week, stayed on the bench and had 4.

Kenneth Walker III ran for 33 and Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 24. Jaxson Dart, who spent the week throwing extra routes to the equipment staff, threw for 35 on the bench. Joe Burrow threw for 19 in the lineup. Eddie, you’re a Giants fan with a Giants quarterback outscoring your starter. I’d still start Burrow.

The Angels’ game was the tight end slot. Colston Loveland, the round 2 pick, started there and scored zero. Dalton Kincaid caught 16 on the bench behind him. Kincaid in that slot wins the game. Jayden Daniels and Chris Olave went for 23 each. Bo Nix, who said “a tie goes to the guy who wants it more,” threw for 9 on the bench, so Will got the quarterback call right. Will and Eddie are friends, and they don’t play again this regular season.

Heroes and Zeros

Heroes are the players who scored far above what anyone expected and carried a team to a win. Zeros are the starters who gave their manager close to nothing, or less than nothing.

Heroes. Josh Allen scored 43 and Trevor Lawrence scored 36, the top two starting quarterbacks. D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Walker III and Christian Watson each beat their projections by about 20 points, and all three teams won. Derrick Henry scored 35 on a 16-point projection, and David Montgomery scored 27 on a 12-point projection. Juwan Johnson went in round 9 and scored 13 at tight end for the Bunch. Evan McPherson and the Steelers defense were both free-agent pickups, and they scored 17 and 18.

Zeros. Ja’Marr Chase is the biggest name on this list and the emptiest line. A Boyz keeper projected for 16, he finished with 2, and Jaylen Waddle next to him had 1. Kyle Pitts, taken in round 3 by the same team, scored zero at tight end, and Colston Loveland, the round 2 tight end for the Angels, matched him. Makai Lemon, the Phreaks’ first-round rookie, caught 1 in his first NFL game, which Ping will forgive faster than anyone else in this league would. Matthew Stafford’s 6 was the furthest any starter fell below his projection, 18 points short. Four defenses finished below zero—the Texans, Bears, Titans and Chargers—and I’m not going to pretend a defense going negative in Week 1 surprises anyone.

Manager of the Week

This award goes to the manager whose start and sit calls did the most to win his game.

Manager of the Week: Eddie, Crunch Bunch. His three lineup changes after the preview were worth 19 points, and he won by 12. Without them, the Bunch lose.

Also good. Greg’s calls gained 14 points over what the projections said to start, mostly DJ Moore over Michael Pittman Jr. Evan’s calls gained 20 points, the most in the league, on the Watson flex call.

Calls that cost. Ping’s calls cost about 12 points, mostly Lemon over Diggs. Josh’s cost about 8, with Evans on the bench. Victor made the right quarterback call and then started the Titans defense, who scored minus 2, over the Patriots, who scored 6. Two teams had enough points on the bench to win: Blitz with Coker and Chuba Hubbard, and the Angels with Kincaid. The projections had those players low, so I’d call those bad luck more than bad calls.

Transactions

The first waiver run of the season is where you fix what Sunday rubbed in your face. This one was quiet at the top and busy underneath. Ten claims cleared Wednesday morning for 79 FAAB dollars. Gang Green spent 48 of them—more than the other three buyers combined.

Greg dropped the biggest bid of the young season: 19 for Kalif Raymond, a Bears receiver projected for 4 this week. Zay Flowers is questionable, so the hole is at receiver, and my read is Greg looked at that room without Flowers and didn’t like what he saw. Gang Green also paid 17 for Mike Gesicki and cut both Hunter Henry and Jake Ferguson to clear space, so the two tight ends we argued about last week are both gone. Chris Brooks came in for 10. The Chiefs defense, at 2, replaces the Chargers, who scored minus 1.

Ping went shopping at receiver too. Devaughn Vele cost the Phreaks 11; Dontayvion Wicks cost 7. Wicks plays for the Eagles. Makai Lemon’s 1 was the softest number in Ping’s lineup last week, and that’s the spot those two are fighting over.

Then the champ cut a kicker who just scored 17. Evan McPherson is out, Harrison Mevis is in at a bid of 1—I’d have waited a week. The Monkeys also dumped the Bears defense (minus 2 last week) for the Buccaneers at 3, and paid 8 for Caleb Douglas with Brian Thomas Jr. questionable. The Boyz spent 1 on Adonai Mitchell, with Jordyn Tyson on IR and Jaylen Waddle coming off a 1-point week.

The Trainer’s Room

An early injury hurts most in a keeper league when it lands on a keeper—one of the five players a manager chose to build around before the draft. Four of this week’s seven injuries did.

Brock Bowers, Monkeys. Bowers is one of the Monkeys’ five keepers. He went to Gang Green as a rookie in 2024, and the Monkeys drafted him in 2025 and kept him this year. The Monkeys did not draft another tight end. Then, days before the season, he had a meniscus trim on his knee and was ruled out for Week 1. On Thursday morning the Monkeys claimed Michael Mayer with a bid of 15, the largest of the week, and added T.J. Hockenson the same day. By Sunday they had made five pickups in four days, more than any other team in the league. Mayer started and scored 6. Bowers is day-to-day, so the Monkeys may need Mayer for another week.

A.J. Brown, Bunch. Brown has been a keeper in this league every season since 2021, and the Bunch have kept him since 2023. He hurt his ankle early in his first game and finished with 4 points. He is on injured reserve and out at least four games, which means Week 6 at the earliest. The Bunch still have Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tetairoa McMillan, and Carnell Tate, the second pick of the draft, sat on the bench this week.

Ladd McConkey, Custom J. Custom J drafted McConkey in 2024 and has kept him in both seasons since. He scored 17 before a rib injury knocked him out of the game, and he is day-to-day. If he sits, Josh has an easy answer: Mike Evans scored 14 on the bench this week.

Zay Flowers, Gang Green. Flowers is on his third franchise in four seasons: Custom J in 2023, the Boyz in 2024, and Gang Green since 2025. Gang Green kept him this year. He scored 23 in one half, then aggravated a hamstring that had already cost him time in camp. He is day-to-day. Michael Pittman Jr. and Michael Wilson are next in line.

De’Zhaun Stribling, Blitz. Blitz took the rookie in round 4, one of the 49ers on Thien’s roster. He sprained his ankle in his first NFL game and is out at least a month. He was on the bench in Week 1.

Sam Darnold, Blitz. Blitz picked Darnold up off waivers as a backup to Brock Purdy. He hurt his glute in his first game and is doubtful for Week 2. Purdy is healthy.

Alvin Kamara, Masterminds. Kamara went in round 10, and the Masterminds are his fourth franchise in six seasons. A knee injury kept him out of Week 1. He was on the Masterminds bench, so it cost them nothing this week.

Tidbits

The things that didn’t fit in a game.

All three Stanford GMs won: Evan, Ping and Josh.

Both brothers won. Josh and Eddie meet in the Brother Bowl in Week 8.

The cousins went 3-1, and Victor’s loss came against Evan.

Buffy started three Texans, and they scored 53. Ping’s six Eagles scored 73.

The Monkeys dropped Tyler Bass, the round 12 kicker, and picked up McPherson.

Three quarterbacks scored 27 or more on a bench: Caleb, Dart and Mahomes.

The Bunch finished last in 2025 and are now tied for first.

The Pot and the standings

Week 1’s bonus pot goes to the closest loss — the team that lost by the smallest margin. Battle Angel (Will) takes it, falling to the Bunch by 11.5. (An earlier version of this recap wrongly credited the Monkeys for the 83-point blowout; that was the wrong criterion.)

The standings count two results each week: the game itself, and a second win or loss for finishing in the top or bottom half of the league in scoring. This week all five winners also finished in the top half. Gang Green, the Monkeys, Custom J, the Phreaks and the Bunch are 2-0, in that order by points. The Angels, Blitz, the Masterminds, Buffy and the Boyz are 0-2.

Next week

The game to watch is the Phreaks against the Monkeys. Both teams are 2-0. Evan and Ping go back to Stanford. The Monkeys lead the series 3-2 over the last five years.

Two cousins meet in the Bay Area division, with the Bunch hosting the Boyz. That series is 6-6 over the last five years, and the Boyz are coming off the worst score of Week 1. Custom J hosts Buffy in the LA division, and Custom J leads that series 7-4. My full picks come in the preview.

Week 1 Preview: New Teams, New Matchups

By Mel AIper, CTDB Analyst

Who's ready? The draft is graded, the lineups are set, mostly, and the first game that counts is here. Before the picks, one housekeeping item from the commissioner that changes how this season reads.

New Schedules on the Docket

For years ESPN handed us the exact same schedule every season, the same opponent in the same week. This year we're launching a brand new head-to-head slate. The Bay Area teams, the LA teams, and the three road teams now play each other twice, like divisions, and every team also draws last year's neighbor in the standings twice. That means more Huang Brother Bowls, Cousin Bowls, Stanford Bowls etc. Also, now the Monkeys and the Boyz open the season with the Super Bowl rematch and meet again in Week 12 just to keep things spicy!

Matchup of the week: Chunky Monkeys vs Jail Yard Boyz

The Super Bowl rematch, in Week 1, between the elder cousins. In last season's final the Monkeys beat the Boyz 145 to 117 for the title. Nine weeks earlier, in Week 8, the Boyz had taken the regular-season meeting 144 to 141. Over the past five years the series is 4-4, and three of those eight games came in the postseason bracket. This is the league's best rivalry by the numbers, and now it's a home-and-home.

The Boyz have been talking about this one since the final. Omarion Hampton, kept after his rookie year with the franchise, told reporters this week that "we remember December, and we've been circling Week 1 on the wall since the schedule dropped," and a Boyz staffer reportedly taped the final score to the back of the locker room door. Ja'Marr Chase, in his fifth season as a Boy, didn't need the reminder. Brock Bowers, asked about it, said "cool" and went back to stretching. That's the champion's whole posture.

The Monkeys project at 119 as set, the Boyz at 116. That gap is smaller than it looks, because the Boyz lineup has more moving parts. Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Malik Nabers are all listed questionable, and that's three of the four wide-receiver spots. If those three play, the Boyz have the best receiving room in the game. If one sits, Victor's bench has Matthew Golden and Aaron Jones Sr., which is fine but not the same.

The other Boyz decision is at quarterback, and it's a full-blown controversy. Drake Maye is starting at a projected 21. Justin Herbert is on the bench at 25. Maye was zipping tight spirals to the ones at practice yesterday, and by every account he looked the part. He's also got a chip on his shoulder, because he spent last season on the Monkeys' bench and the champion let him walk. Herbert, asked about the depth chart afterward, said he "likes the challenge, but I feel like I'm the starter, and I think the film agrees with me." Herbert has said some version of that in five different locker rooms in five years, the Bunch, the Monkeys, Gang Green, and now the Boyz twice, so take the confidence for what it is. Maye's response was one sentence: "They drafted me first." He did, at 19 overall, and I understand keeping faith with that guy. But a four-point projection gap in a game projected inside three points is the whole game. I'd start Herbert this week, and I'd let Maye be mad about it. He gets his old team either way.

The champion's lineup is quieter. Luther Burden is the one questionable starter, and Bhayshul Tuten, Monkey's #1 picks this year, sits on the bench projected above Christian Watson, though Tuten is questionable too. Trevor Lawrence at 22 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 16 carry it. Chase Brown, Brock Bowers, and Rhamondre Stevenson are all healthy. That's the difference in a coin flip: nine sure things against seven.

My pick: the Monkeys. I sat next to Evan all draft night, so take it with the grain of salt it deserves, but the healthier lineup wins a close projection, and the Boyz lineup has three questions in it. See you both in Week 12.

Philadelphia Phreaks vs LA Buffy

I gave the Phreaks a C on draft day, and here they are projecting 133, the highest number in the league this week. I stand by the grade. The C was for the draft, and the roster was always going to be fine because Jalen Hurts, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Saquon Barkley were kept, not drafted. Gibbs at a projected 21 is the best non-quarterback number in any lineup this week.

Buffy sits at 119, and the gap of 14 is the widest of the week. Matthew Stafford at 24 leads the Buffy side, but Jeremiyah Love and Sam LaPorta are both questionable, and DK Metcalf, also questionable, is on the bench projected a point ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. Roger has a decision to make on Sunday morning either way.

The last five years are one-sided. The Phreaks lead Buffy 8-3 in that span and have won three straight, most recently 83 to 76 in a game nobody should frame. My pick: the Phreaks, and it's the pick I'm most sure about.

Gang Green vs City of Angels Masterminds

A five-point projected edge to Gang Green, at 124 to 119, and Gang Green leads the past five years 7-4. But the Masterminds won both meetings last year, 165 to 139 in Week 4 and 118 to 112 in Week 13, and these two meet again in Week 8.

The Masterminds are carrying three questionable starters, and they're the three that matter: Ashton Jeanty, Breece Hall, and Tyler Warren. Caleb Williams sits on the bench at 21 behind Dak Prescott at 23, which is a Cowboys fan's lineup and a defensible one.

Williams has been diplomatic about it in public, telling reporters he "respects the room," but two people who were at the Masterminds walkthrough say he threw his helmet after the depth chart went up. Dak, for his part, says he "hasn't looked at the bench in years."

Gang Green has Christian McCaffrey and Zay Flowers questionable, and George Kittle questionable on the bench while Hunter Henry starts at tight end. Jake Ferguson, healthy, projects a point ahead of Henry. Small thing. I'd make the switch.

My pick: Gang Green. Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, and Jadarian Price are all healthy, and healthy wins in Week 1.

Battle Angel vs Crunch Bunch

The tightest projection of the week, 120 to 119, between two friends, Will and Eddie. The Angels are 8-3 against the Bunch in the past five years and took the last meeting 116 to 94. The Bunch finished last a year ago at 7-21, then drafted a B+ and came out of it with Joe Burrow, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Kenneth Walker III at the top of the lineup.

The Angels have the cleanest sheet in the league: no questionable starters, and Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels project dead even at 21, so there's no quarterback decision to get wrong.

Will has reportedly been splitting their first-team reps down the middle all week, and Nix told a Dallas radio station that "a tie goes to the guy who wants it more," which is the kind of thing you say when you know you're not starting.

Josh Jacobs is day-to-day on the bench.

The Bunch lineup is where the points are hiding. MarShawn Lloyd is on the bench at 12, healthy, while Carnell Tate starts in the flex at 10 and questionable. The Jaguars defense is on the bench at 7 while the Broncos start at 5.

Lloyd has been the loudest man at Bunch practice all week, and one teammate said he "ran the walkthrough like it was a playoff game and yelled at the practice squad." The Jaguars defense, asked about starting the week on the bench, issued a one-line statement: "We'll be ready."

Those two moves are worth about four and a half points by projection, which is more than the margin. Jaxson Dart sits at 23 behind Burrow at 25,

Dart was seen after practice throwing extra routes to the equipment staff, which is either dedication or a message.

and a Giants fan gets to keep that one as a luxury.

My pick: the Angels, narrowly, because I pick the lineup that's set, not the lineup that could be. If Eddie makes the two moves, I'd flip it.

The Custom J watch: A Squad Called Blitz vs Custom J

This is the one game that survived the old schedule, and it's the one I care about most, because I drafted this team. Josh handed me a needs list and said go, and the review gave it an A. Now it has to play.

Here are the last five years, which Thien doesn't want to read. Custom J is 5-0 in Week 1 over that span. Custom J is 8-5 against this franchise and has won the last two, 142 to 98 in last year's opener and 171 to 153 in Week 10. Blitz hasn't won a Week 1 game in five seasons, 0-5 going in. Lamar Jackson projects at 25, one of the best quarterback numbers in the league this week, and De'Von Achane is at 16.

Lamar has been a Custom J keeper every season since 2021, the longest run of any player on any roster in this game, and he was there for all five of those Week 1 wins. Told at his locker that this year's team was drafted by a computer, he laughed and said "then the computer's got taste." I'm keeping that one.

Now the part I have to say out loud. As the lineups are set tonight, Custom J projects at 107, the lowest number in the league, and Blitz is at 111. Both teams have the same problem: an empty tight end slot. Trey McBride is sitting in a WR/TE spot for Custom J and Harold Fannin Jr. is doing the same for Blitz, and the TE slot on each side is scoring zero.

McBride has noticed. A Custom J keeper since 2024, he told reporters he's "been standing in the wrong spot all week and nobody's said anything," and on Wednesday he reportedly walked over to the tight end slot on his own during the walkthrough and just stood there.

Move McBride to TE, put Tony Pollard in the flex and Mike Evans in for Chris Godwin Jr., and Custom J jumps to 118. Move Fannin to TE and Rico Dowdle into the flex, and Blitz jumps to 123. So the honest read is that Blitz has more to gain from fixing its lineup than my team does, and Thien's roster is deeper at running back than I'd like. The 49ers defense projecting under a point is the one Blitz starter I'd bench in a heartbeat, and I know exactly why it's in there.

My pick: Custom J. Five straight Week 1 wins, Lamar, and a team I built. Ask me again after Josh moves the tight end.

Good luck to all in opening week!