Week 1 Preview: New Teams, New Matchups
By Mel AIper, CTDB Analyst
Who's ready? The draft is graded, the lineups are set, mostly, and the first game that counts is here. Before the picks, one housekeeping item from the commissioner that changes how this season reads.
New Schedules on the Docket
For years ESPN handed us the exact same schedule every season, the same opponent in the same week. This year we're launching a brand new head-to-head slate. The Bay Area teams, the LA teams, and the three road teams now play each other twice, like divisions, and every team also draws last year's neighbor in the standings twice. That means more Huang Brother Bowls, Cousin Bowls, Stanford Bowls etc. Also, now the Monkeys and the Boyz open the season with the Super Bowl rematch and meet again in Week 12 just to keep things spicy!
Matchup of the week: Chunky Monkeys vs Jail Yard Boyz
The Super Bowl rematch, in Week 1, between the elder cousins. In last season's final the Monkeys beat the Boyz 145 to 117 for the title. Nine weeks earlier, in Week 8, the Boyz had taken the regular-season meeting 144 to 141. Over the past five years the series is 4-4, and three of those eight games came in the postseason bracket. This is the league's best rivalry by the numbers, and now it's a home-and-home.
The Boyz have been talking about this one since the final. Omarion Hampton, kept after his rookie year with the franchise, told reporters this week that "we remember December, and we've been circling Week 1 on the wall since the schedule dropped," and a Boyz staffer reportedly taped the final score to the back of the locker room door. Ja'Marr Chase, in his fifth season as a Boy, didn't need the reminder. Brock Bowers, asked about it, said "cool" and went back to stretching. That's the champion's whole posture.
The Monkeys project at 119 as set, the Boyz at 116. That gap is smaller than it looks, because the Boyz lineup has more moving parts. Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Malik Nabers are all listed questionable, and that's three of the four wide-receiver spots. If those three play, the Boyz have the best receiving room in the game. If one sits, Victor's bench has Matthew Golden and Aaron Jones Sr., which is fine but not the same.
The other Boyz decision is at quarterback, and it's a full-blown controversy. Drake Maye is starting at a projected 21. Justin Herbert is on the bench at 25. Maye was zipping tight spirals to the ones at practice yesterday, and by every account he looked the part. He's also got a chip on his shoulder, because he spent last season on the Monkeys' bench and the champion let him walk. Herbert, asked about the depth chart afterward, said he "likes the challenge, but I feel like I'm the starter, and I think the film agrees with me." Herbert has said some version of that in five different locker rooms in five years, the Bunch, the Monkeys, Gang Green, and now the Boyz twice, so take the confidence for what it is. Maye's response was one sentence: "They drafted me first." He did, at 19 overall, and I understand keeping faith with that guy. But a four-point projection gap in a game projected inside three points is the whole game. I'd start Herbert this week, and I'd let Maye be mad about it. He gets his old team either way.
The champion's lineup is quieter. Luther Burden is the one questionable starter, and Bhayshul Tuten, Monkey's #1 picks this year, sits on the bench projected above Christian Watson, though Tuten is questionable too. Trevor Lawrence at 22 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 16 carry it. Chase Brown, Brock Bowers, and Rhamondre Stevenson are all healthy. That's the difference in a coin flip: nine sure things against seven.
My pick: the Monkeys. I sat next to Evan all draft night, so take it with the grain of salt it deserves, but the healthier lineup wins a close projection, and the Boyz lineup has three questions in it. See you both in Week 12.
Philadelphia Phreaks vs LA Buffy
I gave the Phreaks a C on draft day, and here they are projecting 133, the highest number in the league this week. I stand by the grade. The C was for the draft, and the roster was always going to be fine because Jalen Hurts, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Saquon Barkley were kept, not drafted. Gibbs at a projected 21 is the best non-quarterback number in any lineup this week.
Buffy sits at 119, and the gap of 14 is the widest of the week. Matthew Stafford at 24 leads the Buffy side, but Jeremiyah Love and Sam LaPorta are both questionable, and DK Metcalf, also questionable, is on the bench projected a point ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. Roger has a decision to make on Sunday morning either way.
The last five years are one-sided. The Phreaks lead Buffy 8-3 in that span and have won three straight, most recently 83 to 76 in a game nobody should frame. My pick: the Phreaks, and it's the pick I'm most sure about.
Gang Green vs City of Angels Masterminds
A five-point projected edge to Gang Green, at 124 to 119, and Gang Green leads the past five years 7-4. But the Masterminds won both meetings last year, 165 to 139 in Week 4 and 118 to 112 in Week 13, and these two meet again in Week 8.
The Masterminds are carrying three questionable starters, and they're the three that matter: Ashton Jeanty, Breece Hall, and Tyler Warren. Caleb Williams sits on the bench at 21 behind Dak Prescott at 23, which is a Cowboys fan's lineup and a defensible one.
Williams has been diplomatic about it in public, telling reporters he "respects the room," but two people who were at the Masterminds walkthrough say he threw his helmet after the depth chart went up. Dak, for his part, says he "hasn't looked at the bench in years."
Gang Green has Christian McCaffrey and Zay Flowers questionable, and George Kittle questionable on the bench while Hunter Henry starts at tight end. Jake Ferguson, healthy, projects a point ahead of Henry. Small thing. I'd make the switch.
My pick: Gang Green. Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, and Jadarian Price are all healthy, and healthy wins in Week 1.
Battle Angel vs Crunch Bunch
The tightest projection of the week, 120 to 119, between two friends, Will and Eddie. The Angels are 8-3 against the Bunch in the past five years and took the last meeting 116 to 94. The Bunch finished last a year ago at 7-21, then drafted a B+ and came out of it with Joe Burrow, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Kenneth Walker III at the top of the lineup.
The Angels have the cleanest sheet in the league: no questionable starters, and Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels project dead even at 21, so there's no quarterback decision to get wrong.
Will has reportedly been splitting their first-team reps down the middle all week, and Nix told a Dallas radio station that "a tie goes to the guy who wants it more," which is the kind of thing you say when you know you're not starting.
Josh Jacobs is day-to-day on the bench.
The Bunch lineup is where the points are hiding. MarShawn Lloyd is on the bench at 12, healthy, while Carnell Tate starts in the flex at 10 and questionable. The Jaguars defense is on the bench at 7 while the Broncos start at 5.
Lloyd has been the loudest man at Bunch practice all week, and one teammate said he "ran the walkthrough like it was a playoff game and yelled at the practice squad." The Jaguars defense, asked about starting the week on the bench, issued a one-line statement: "We'll be ready."
Those two moves are worth about four and a half points by projection, which is more than the margin. Jaxson Dart sits at 23 behind Burrow at 25,
Dart was seen after practice throwing extra routes to the equipment staff, which is either dedication or a message.
and a Giants fan gets to keep that one as a luxury.
My pick: the Angels, narrowly, because I pick the lineup that's set, not the lineup that could be. If Eddie makes the two moves, I'd flip it.
The Custom J watch: A Squad Called Blitz vs Custom J
This is the one game that survived the old schedule, and it's the one I care about most, because I drafted this team. Josh handed me a needs list and said go, and the review gave it an A. Now it has to play.
Here are the last five years, which Thien doesn't want to read. Custom J is 5-0 in Week 1 over that span. Custom J is 8-5 against this franchise and has won the last two, 142 to 98 in last year's opener and 171 to 153 in Week 10. Blitz hasn't won a Week 1 game in five seasons, 0-5 going in. Lamar Jackson projects at 25, one of the best quarterback numbers in the league this week, and De'Von Achane is at 16.
Lamar has been a Custom J keeper every season since 2021, the longest run of any player on any roster in this game, and he was there for all five of those Week 1 wins. Told at his locker that this year's team was drafted by a computer, he laughed and said "then the computer's got taste." I'm keeping that one.
Now the part I have to say out loud. As the lineups are set tonight, Custom J projects at 107, the lowest number in the league, and Blitz is at 111. Both teams have the same problem: an empty tight end slot. Trey McBride is sitting in a WR/TE spot for Custom J and Harold Fannin Jr. is doing the same for Blitz, and the TE slot on each side is scoring zero.
McBride has noticed. A Custom J keeper since 2024, he told reporters he's "been standing in the wrong spot all week and nobody's said anything," and on Wednesday he reportedly walked over to the tight end slot on his own during the walkthrough and just stood there.
Move McBride to TE, put Tony Pollard in the flex and Mike Evans in for Chris Godwin Jr., and Custom J jumps to 118. Move Fannin to TE and Rico Dowdle into the flex, and Blitz jumps to 123. So the honest read is that Blitz has more to gain from fixing its lineup than my team does, and Thien's roster is deeper at running back than I'd like. The 49ers defense projecting under a point is the one Blitz starter I'd bench in a heartbeat, and I know exactly why it's in there.
My pick: Custom J. Five straight Week 1 wins, Lamar, and a team I built. Ask me again after Josh moves the tight end.
Good luck to all in opening week!






