Week 4 Preview: Ollie Gordon Comes Home

By Mel Alper, CTDB Analyst

Ollie Gordon has spent September getting passed around this league like a casserole dish. He spent last season with the Phreaks. This year, Blitz took him in the fifth round on draft night only to be cut ten days later. On Wednesday, GM Ping paid 31 dollars to bring him home, the biggest bid this league has seen all year — the prodigal son returns.

What changed was a knee in Miami. De’Von Achane tore his ACL on Sunday, and four of Wednesday’s eight claims were Dolphins: Gordon and Jaylen Wright to Ping, Malik Washington to Marcus, Chris Bell to Josh. More than half the league put in bids for Ollie but Ping won out. In fact, by Wednesday morning Ping owned both halves of the Miami backfield, and Josh owned a questionable receiver — sorry Josh.

Josh’s reward for his week is a matchup against the 5-1 Monkeys. The Monkeys are 5-1 and alone in first and with Bowers back, they seem to be primed for a run. Custom J, on the other hand, is 2-4, down a keeper, and projected to score 117 by ESPN, the lowest number in the league. My picks went 3-2 last week, and one of the three was a pick against Custom J (sorry again Josh).

Matchup of the week, and the Custom J watch: Chunky Monkeys vs Custom J

Custom J gets watched every week because Claude built him and honestly, AI eradicating humans seems like a lower probability these days. The computer drafted for Josh, and every Sunday is a referendum on Claude (sources say, it was even Fable at work). The Monkeys won it in 2021, 2022 and 2025, Custom J in 2023 and 2024. Across all twelve meetings in that span the Monkeys lead 8-4, and they have won the last four.

Custom J comes in this week hurt, and the hurt runs past Sunday. Achane, a keeper since 2024, is done for the year. A late-September tear leaves an outside chance he’s ready for Week 1 next season, which turns next summer’s keeper call into a medical question. Ladd McConkey, also a keeper, is questionable with a new foot problem. D’Andre Swift landed on Thursday’s report with a knee but was back at practice Friday. Mike Evans has the ribs, the kind of injury receivers play through on fewer snaps and fewer targets, and the cautious read says sit him.

The projections want Terry McLaurin in for TreVeyon Henderson, though McLaurin turned up Friday with a hamstring of his own. His game kicks off early, in London, so Josh will know before the rest of the slate. The projections also want the Chiefs defense over the Bears, which is a sentence with a history. Josh claimed the Bears for a dollar two Sundays ago, dropped them for the Chiefs four days later, and claimed the Bears back on Wednesday for another dollar. The gap is two-tenths of a point, so this is about principle, not math. Keep the Chiefs.

The Monkeys’ lineup is stout — they made some last-minute changes at K and DST. The front office says the staffer on the improvement plan has been moved off lineup duty so things should be smoother going forward.

Pick: the Monkeys, healthy, set and favored by 12 against three questionable starters and a keeper on injured reserve. Two straight weeks now the preview has gone against the roster the computer built.

A Squad Called Blitz vs Jail Yard Boyz

Last week’s best score against last week’s worst, in the Bay Area division. Blitz put up 174, the season high. The Boyz put up 75 and sit 60 points behind everyone else in points for. The series says ignore all of that. The Boyz own it 8-4 over the last five years and have won the last two meetings, including last year’s playoff game, 151 to 120.

Blitz has scored more points than anyone this season and has its whole lineup set the way the projections want it, with one catch. Jalen Coker is questionable with a quad and isn’t expected to play, so Thien should have Emeka Egbuka, at 9.5, ready to slide in. On the other side, Bucky Irving is questionable with a glute, but he practiced on a limited basis, which usually means he plays.

Pick: Blitz, by about 10 on the projections. History is nice to have, but it doesn’t play receiver.

Battle Angel vs Gang Green

The widest projection on the board, Gang Green by 17, in a Road-division game between two franchises that have split eleven meetings over five years almost evenly, 6-5 Greg.

The Angels’ case is a waiver quarterback. Bryce Young projects at 27, within a point of Josh Allen, for a team that claimed him off the wire two Sundays ago when Jayden Daniels’ elbow went. Daniels is out again, and the cautious read says Week 6, so the job is Young’s for now. He plays Sunday night against Detroit. Jakobi Meyers is questionable again with the thumb he has played through every week.

Greg’s call is in the flex, where the projections want Braelon Allen, at 11.9, over DJ Moore at 10.8. Moore has since come off the injury report, so this is a matchup call, not a health call. With Breece Hall out, Allen inherits most of the Jets backfield, against a soft Bears run defense.

Pick: Gang Green. Seventeen points is a lot of ground for one waiver quarterback to cover.

City of Angels Masterminds vs Philadelphia Phreaks

The Masterminds are 4-2 and lead Gang Green on points for by a tenth of a point, 425.4 to 425.3. It buys them nothing. Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, Gang Green won the Week 1 meeting, and ESPN lists Greg third. The Phreaks have won the last three meetings in this series by 48, 67 and 47 points, the latest 152 to 106, and ESPN has them by 3, the tightest projection of the week.

Then look at who’s actually playing. Marcus is without Breece Hall, a keeper, ruled out with a quad strain that usually costs about two weeks and carries re-injury risk. The back who replaces him in New York sits on Gang Green’s bench. The projections want Tyler Warren at tight end and Alvin Kamara in the flex, and the Masterminds’ lineup carries no injury tags at all.

Ping’s carries three. Puka Nacua, a keeper, is expected back from the groin, though the more cautious read is that it lingers all season. Kenyon Sadiq practiced on a limited basis and should play. Justin Jefferson is the problem. He has been a Phreaks keeper every year since 2021, he didn’t practice Wednesday, he wasn’t spotted Thursday, and the cautious read of the tape says high ankle, which usually means more than one week and a dip after. Swap his 15 for a bench receiver’s 9 and that 3-point edge becomes a 3-point deficit.

Pick: the Phreaks, narrowly. They have won this game by 46 or more three years running, and Nacua’s return covers part of what Jefferson’s ankle costs.

Crunch Bunch vs LA Buffy

These two spent last December together in the consolation ladder, twice, and Buffy won both, the second one 93 to 41. That made three straight for Buffy in a series the Bunch opened 4-0.

For the third straight week the preview has a note for Eddie about Kyle Monangai, and this week Thursday night made the call before he could. Jaylen Warren, projected at 15, played the Browns on Thursday and scored 14 on the Bunch bench. That’s locked. Monangai, projected at 8, still has to play, so he needs 14 just to make the lineup look right. Last week the same pair went 19 to 3 the wrong way.

There is one way Monangai pays off. He’s D’Andre Swift’s backup in Chicago, and Swift, who plays for Eddie’s brother Josh, has that knee. Swift practiced Friday, so don’t count on it. Quinshon Judkins already put 19 on the board Thursday, so Eddie starts Sunday ahead.

Buffy’s lineup is already the best version of itself by the projections, with two questions at receiver. Nico Collins, a keeper, is expected back from the hamstring. DeVonta Smith, another keeper, sat out Thursday’s practice with his. Roger’s best insurance, DK Metcalf, already played Thursday and scored 14 on the bench, so the backup plan is Tre Tucker.

Pick: Buffy. Three straight in the series, nothing left on the bench, and Eddie hoping Monangai can outrun a number that’s already in.

Starters and bench

This section is for the calls that can still be made. Thursday took some off the table. Warren’s 14, Metcalf’s 14, Denzel Boston’s 11 and KC Concepcion’s 9 all went up on benches and are staying there.

Most of what’s left is in the games above. Eddie has two more: Juwan Johnson over Tucker Kraft at tight end, 8.6 to 6.9, and the Jaguars defense over the Panthers, who draw Detroit on Sunday night, opposite Eddie’s own Amon-Ra St. Brown. Victor should get Malik Nabers back in over Jaylen Waddle, 11.4 to 9.5. Ping’s projections want Dobbins over the 31-dollar man, 9.6 to 8.0. The Monkeys, Buffy and the Angels are within a point of their best lineups, and Blitz is too if Coker plays.

Atlanta and New Orleans play Monday night, which leaves Bijan Robinson and Drake London for Blitz, Chris Olave for the Angels and, if Evan flips the coin his way, Shough for the Monkeys as the last word of the week.

Transactions

The hole was in Miami, and Wednesday’s run went straight at it. Five teams claimed and five stood pat, and the run cost 71 dollars. Ping spent 48 of it, as much as Gang Green has spent all season, and at 66 for the year he is now the league’s biggest spender.

Gordon was 31 of the 48 and Wright the other 17. To make room, Ping let go of Devaughn Vele, the receiver he bought for 11 in Week 2, and Baker Mayfield, his backup quarterback, who is out for weeks with a dislocated thumb. Read: Ping didn’t buy a running back. He bought the whole Dolphins backfield, both halves, the week Josh lost it. The early word is a committee, Wright on passing downs and Gordon in short yardage, against a Vikings defense nobody wants to start into. Week 4 is the audition.

Marcus paid 10 for Malik Washington, another Dolphin, and dropped Rashid Shaheed. Josh paid 8 for Chris Bell, a fourth, plus a dollar for a kicker, Dominic Zvada, and a dollar to bring the Bears back. Victor’s Steelers defense cost 2 and returned 3 on Thursday. Evan spent a dollar Wednesday on Shrader and went back Thursday for the Ravens defense at 3.

This Week’s Pot 💰

Week 4 pays the waiver hero: the highest-scoring starter who wasn’t drafted or kept this year. Last year’s Week 4 paid for wide receiver catches and went to the Phreaks, so nobody is defending this one. The Angels’ Young is the clear favorite: at 27, he has the best projection of any qualifying starter by a wide margin. The closest challenger sits on a bench: Shough, a 5-dollar claim, projects at 24.8 behind Lawrence on the commissioner’s roster. Start him, and the Pot becomes a two-quarterback race between waiver adds. Sit him, and it’s Young’s to lose.

Week 3 Recap: The Empty Slot

By Mel Alper, CTDB Analyst

What a week - the Monkeys shipped an awesome week despite displaying some really rookie GM mistakes. Evan spent Wednesday morning shopping for a kicker but somehow picked up a defense and cut the kicker and as a result, had played against Gang Green with no kicker. It didn't matter though - the Monkeys still won (see below). The Monkeys front office is calling it an administrative error, and an unnamed member of the staff has been placed on a performance improvement plan.

The Monkey's nine men in a ten-man lineup scored 163, beat Gang Green by 29, and put the Monkeys alone in first at 5-1.

It was also a week to be a backup quarterback. Sam Darnold, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff all threw for 26 or more from a bench, and six of the ten starting quarterbacks scored less than all four of them. Darnold’s 39 sat behind Brock Purdy’s 42 on the same Blitz roster, on the way to the highest score this league has seen all season. For all that bench production, not one quarterback call flipped a game. Purdy and Shough outscored the backups behind them. Goff’s extra 7 would have left Greg 22 short, and Stafford would have left Roger a point and a half short.

The preview board went 3-2. It was right on Blitz, on the Angels, and on the Phreaks over the roster the computer drafted. It was wrong on Gang Green, who lost to the commissioner by 29, and wrong on the Boyz, who lost by 72.

The games

Chunky Monkeys 163, Gang Green 134

This was the first real test for the champion. They were the only two teams above even, and Gang Green had won the last two meetings, 136 to 84 in 2024 and 116 to 112 last season. The preview took Greg because the Monkeys’ Wednesday lineup needed two substitutions just to reach its own ceiling. Evan made both of them, and then a third.

Tyler Shough, claimed Wednesday for 5, threw for 34 while Lawrence sat on 28. Brock Bowers played for the first time this season and went for 23 at tight end, where Michael Mayer would have given him 11. Luther Burden III took Rhamondre Stevenson’s spot and outscored him 16 to 5. Add them up and the three changes were worth 30 points, and the margin was 29. With the Wednesday lineup left alone, the Monkeys lose this game by eight-tenths of a point.

Greg lost it in the half of his roster he didn’t start. Josh Allen threw for 19 on a projection of 30, and Goff threw for 26 on the bench, a week after throwing for 41 there. Michael Wilson caught 20 and Kalif Raymond, the 19-dollar claim, caught 18, both on the bench. Nobody sets that lineup on a Sunday morning, but it was on the roster, and it scores 169. Greg did what the projections told him and scored 134, fourth in the league. That was good enough for the standings win and nowhere near enough for the game.

A Squad Called Blitz 174, Crunch Bunch 102

Blitz had won the last two meetings in this Bay Area series, and Eddie came in with one obvious fix: Joe Burrow in for Jaxson Dart, who had already been cut. He made it, and Burrow threw for 31. It didn’t matter.

Blitz had four players at 20 or better, and no lineup on Eddie’s roster was catching that. Purdy threw for 42. Bijan Robinson ran for 34, twice his projection. Drake London and Harold Fannin Jr. added 24 and 21. The Masterminds’ 167 from Week 2 lasted exactly one week as the season high.

Thien has run this franchise since 2023 and finished ninth, fifth and fifth, and it hasn’t cracked the top four in the last five years. A roster that scores 174 with a 39-point quarterback on the bench isn’t built for fifth. It’s too early for verdicts, and I’m tempted anyway.

The call that hurt Eddie was at running back, where Kyle Monangai started and scored 3 while Jaylen Warren ran for 19 on the bench. It was the worst lineup call in the league this week, and it didn’t decide anything. The best lineup the Bunch owned scores 154 and still loses by 20.

City of Angels Masterminds 147, Jail Yard Boyz 75

The preview picked the Boyz on history. They had won the last three meetings, scoring 147, 151 and 170. This time Dak Prescott didn’t need another 41. He threw for 24, and the Masterminds scored 146.9, within a rounding error of the 147 the Boyz once beat them with, and won by 72.

The Boyz didn’t lose at one position. They lost everywhere. Victor had switched to Drake Maye at quarterback, and Maye threw for 6 against a projection of 24, the furthest any player in the league fell short of his number. Justin Herbert threw for 17 on the bench, so the switch cost 11, which barely registers in a 72-point loss. Six Boyz starters finished at 6 or less. Ja’Marr Chase caught 20, and no other starter got past 12.

The Masterminds didn’t need a star. Prescott, James Cook III and Davante Adams all landed between 17 and 24, and the Vikings defense added 18, most of what won Marcus the Pot.

Philadelphia Phreaks 99, Custom J 90

This was a rematch of December’s semifinal, which Custom J won 130 to 119, and it came down to the tight end slot. At midweek Ping had Dallas Goedert there, doubtful and projecting zero, a starting spot with nothing in it. By Sunday Goedert was out and Kenyon Sadiq, the round 8 rookie, was in. Sadiq caught 20 on a projection of 7. The Phreaks won by 9, so Sadiq covered the margin twice by himself.

Josh had a fix of his own on the bench and didn’t make it. The preview said Tony Pollard belonged in the lineup. Pollard ran for 12 on the bench while TreVeyon Henderson started and scored 3, and Terry McLaurin’s 17 sat behind Josh Downs’s 10. Those calls cost 15 points in a game Custom J lost by 9. The draft was the computer’s. The lineup was Josh’s.

So the league’s favorite storyline holds for another week: the roster a computer drafted lost to the roster an Eagles fan built around his team, though the Eagles had little to do with it. Ping’s five Eagles starters gave him 26 between them, the Eagles defense finished at minus 2, and Jahmyr Gibbs, a Detroit Lion, carried the Phreaks with 38. The computer has no comment. It also lost its best running back the same afternoon, which is where the Trainer’s Room starts.

Battle Angel 108, LA Buffy 100

These are the two franchises with the worst five-year records in the league, and the Angels came in 0-4. The preview picked them anyway, because Will’s lineup was already the best version of itself and nobody else’s was. He started exactly the lineup the projections wanted, and it held up.

Roger lost this on the lineup page. Jordan Addison caught 18 on his bench while Tre Tucker started and caught 6. Swap those two and Buffy wins by 3. His calls cost 11 points in the closest game of the week.

The quarterback call will get more attention, and it mattered less. In Week 2, Patrick Mahomes beat Matthew Stafford by about half a point, 38.8 to 38.25, with Stafford on the bench. This week Mahomes threw for 22 and Stafford threw for 29 on the bench. Start Stafford and Buffy still loses by a point and a half. The receiver call decided the game.

The Angels won by 8 and finished fifth in scoring, so their first win came with a second one attached. They went from 0-4 to 2-4 in one Sunday. Kyren Williams and Bryce Young each put up 19, and Javonte Williams added 17.

Heroes and Zeros

The final scores tell you who won. This section covers the individual swings behind them: the heroes are players who blew past anything a manager could reasonably expect, and the zeros are healthy starters who were supposed to carry a lineup and gave nothing back.

Heroes. Bijan’s 34 was 17 points above his projection, the most by any starter. The only player who beat his number by more was Darnold, by 18, from the Blitz bench, and that tells you about Blitz’s week. It was also a tight end week, with George Kittle’s 23 for Gang Green leading four tight ends at 20 or better: Kittle, Bowers, Fannin and Sadiq. Two of them decided games. Bowers’s return covered 12 of the Monkeys’ 29-point margin, and Sadiq outscored the Phreaks’ margin twice.

The waiver wire finally paid this week, mostly to benches. Shough was the one who started: 5 dollars, 34 points. Darnold, a free Blitz pickup before Week 1, threw for 39 behind Purdy. Raymond, last week’s biggest bid, caught 18 behind Zay Flowers. A week ago, every claim that made a lineup scored 7 or less. Evan spent 17 of the league’s 19 dollars on Wednesday. The 5 on Shough bought 34 points. The other 12 bought a benched running back, a benched defense and a kicker who didn’t last until Sunday.

Zeros. Jadarian Price, the eighth pick of the draft, followed a 5 in Week 2 with a 1 for Gang Green. Tetairoa McMillan, a Bunch keeper, caught 3 against a projection of 12. Jonathan Taylor won last week’s Pot with 27 out of the flex and ran for 8 this time. Jalen Hurts threw for 14 on a projection of 25, on Monday night, for the one GM in the league who started five Eagles. Three started defenses finished at minus 2: the Eagles, the Bengals and the 49ers.

The one mercy is that no zero cost anyone a game. Price’s owner lost by 29, Taylor’s and McMillan’s games were decided by 72, and Hurts’s team won anyway. The lineup page did all the damage this week.

Manager of the Week

Rosters get built in August, but games get won on the lineup page. This award measures the one thing a manager fully controls on Sunday: his score against what the lineup the projections wanted would have scored.

Manager of the Week: Evan, Chunky Monkeys. His calls gained 11 points, the most in the league, and every one of them came from Burden over Stevenson. Shough and Bowers were what the projections wanted anyway, so they don’t count toward it. Complaints about the commissioner winning an award in his own league can be filed with the commissioner.

Nothing to decide. Will, Greg, Marcus and Victor each started exactly the lineup the projections wanted. Victor’s is the one to feel bad about. He did what the projections said, and the projections missed on the Boyz by 52. Thien gained 4 and Ping lost 1.

Calls that cost. Eddie’s cost 16, the most in the league, and all of it was Monangai over Warren. Josh’s cost 15 and Roger’s cost 11, and those were the only two sets of calls this week that decided a game.

The Trainer’s Room

In a keeper league, an injury isn’t just one bad Sunday. It lands on the five players a manager built his roster around, it follows the franchise into next summer’s keeper decisions, and it sends half the league to Wednesday’s wire. Five keepers picked up a new tag since midweek, and one of them is gone for the year.

De’Von Achane, Custom J. Torn ACL on his third carry Sunday, out for the season. He had been a Custom J keeper since 2024 and gave the team 2 on a projection of 17 before he went down. A late-September tear leaves an outside chance he’s ready for Week 1 next year, so next summer’s keeper decision turns into a medical question. For now Pollard is the fill-in, and Jonah Coleman, the round 13 rookie, is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and can’t come back before Week 7. Custom J is the obvious bidder at running back this week.

Josh Allen, Gang Green. Questionable after a 19-point day and a helmet to the left knee late in the game. His coach says he isn’t concerned, and early reads call it a bruise rather than structural damage. Allen has been a Gang Green keeper since 2022, and his backup has thrown for 41 and 26 from the bench the last two weeks. Of all the quarterback injuries in the league, this is the one nobody needs to panic about.

Justin Jefferson, Phreaks. Ankle sprain. Imaging came back clean and he could play in Week 4, though the more cautious read of the tape says high ankle, which usually costs two to three weeks and dents production for a while after he returns. He has been a Phreaks keeper every year since 2021, and he caught 4 before he left. Ping’s list is longer than that. Puka Nacua missed his second straight game with a hip, and the Rams are hopeful but noncommittal about Week 4. Goedert missed Sunday with the knee sprain and is expected to miss Week 4 too. Baker Mayfield, the backup quarterback, is out at least three weeks with a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand.

Travis Etienne Jr., Angels. A keeper who aggravated his hamstring and will miss time, with no timeline yet and injured reserve still possible. Will has the depth for it: both Williamses started beside him and scored 17 or better.

Breece Hall, Masterminds. A keeper, week-to-week with a quad strain, and likely out in Week 4. The MRI was better than feared. The back who takes over the Jets backfield, Braelon Allen, is sitting on Gang Green’s bench, so Marcus won’t find the handcuff on the wire. Caleb Williams, the Masterminds’ backup quarterback, is still on a three-to-four-week clock with the hamstring strain from Week 2.

The rest. Nico Collins, a Buffy keeper, missed his second straight game with a mild hamstring strain, returned to practice Wednesday, and has a decent chance to play in Week 4. Rico Dowdle sat out for Blitz with a toe, and Jalen Coker left with what looks like a mild quad strain and is questionable. Mike Evans is day-to-day for Custom J with a rib injury, and even if he plays, receivers with rib injuries tend to lose snaps and targets. Jayden Daniels is back at practice for the Angels, limited, in an elbow brace and with no surgery, and could return in Week 4, though the cautious read says Week 6.

Back. Bowers played for the first time this season, and Mayer, the 15-dollar fill-in, goes back to the bench. Flowers played through his hamstring for Gang Green, and Darnold came back from a glute injury and threw for 39 from a bench.

Tidbits

A few things that didn’t decide a game but will come up at the draft table anyway.

The Monkeys have won Week 3 every year since 2021. The Masterminds had lost it every year since 2021. Both streaks were live on Sunday, and only one of them survived.

Blitz and the Masterminds both won by 72, in the same week, four-tenths of a point apart.

Blitz has now beaten the Bunch three straight times.

Ping beat Josh in the Stanford game, and Evan, the third Stanford GM, won his.

The family went 1-3. Evan won and Victor lost. The brothers, Josh and Eddie, both lost, and both are 2-4.

This Week’s Pot 

Week 3 paid the highest combined score from a starting kicker and defense, and the City of Angels Masterminds (Marcus Moore) take it with 29: Brandon Aubrey kicked for 11 and the Vikings defense scored 18. Marcus switched from the Texans to the Vikings this week, a week after the Vikings scored 15 on his bench, and the switch was worth 10. He didn’t need it. Aubrey plus the Texans’ 8 still wins at 19, with the Boyz and the Bunch tied for second at 12. The Monkeys, who spent 6 dollars on this Pot, finished ninth with 4.

The standings count the game plus a second result for finishing in the top or bottom half of the week’s scoring. The Monkeys went 2-0 and sit alone at 5-1, even though three teams have outscored them. Blitz, the Masterminds and Gang Green are 4-2. Blitz leads the league in points at 446, and the Masterminds and Gang Green are separated by a tenth of a point, 425.4 to 425.3. ESPN still lists Gang Green third, because head-to-head is the first tiebreaker and Gang Green won their Week 1 meeting. The Phreaks are 3-3. Custom J, the Bunch, the Angels, Buffy and the Boyz are 2-4, and the Boyz have scored 263 points, 60 fewer than anyone else.

Next week

The Monkeys, 5-1, host Custom J, 2-4. That puts the commissioner against the roster the computer drafted for his cousin Josh, now playing without its best running back. The Monkeys lead that series 8-4 over the last five years.

Blitz hosts the Boyz in the Bay Area division, the best score of Week 3 against the worst, in a series the Boyz lead 8-4. Gang Green visits the newly revived Angels in the Road division, with Allen’s knee the question. The Masterminds host the Phreaks, Hall probably out on one side and Jefferson and Nacua uncertain on the other, and Buffy visits the Bunch. Picks come in the preview.

Week 3 Preview

By Mel Alper, CTDB Analyst

Greg paid 17 dollars for a tight end last week and finished this morning with the tight end he already had. He dropped Jake Ferguson to make room for Mike Gesicki last Wednesday. This morning he dropped Gesicki and claimed Ferguson back, for nothing.

The rest of the room was reading the Pot instead. Eight claims cleared Wednesday morning, half of them a kicker or a defense, in the week the Pot pays for exactly that pair. The league spent 19 dollars all in, and six teams didn’t bid at all.

Gang Green and the Monkeys are the only teams above even, and the schedule put them in the same game. Last week’s preview board went 2-3 — wrong on Monkeys over Phreaks, wrong on Buffy over Custom J.

Matchup of the week: Gang Green vs Chunky Monkeys

Two teams in this league have more wins than losses, and they play each other Sunday. The last five years are split 3-3, and Gang Green has won the last two, 136 to 84 in 2024 and 116 to 112 last season.

Josh Allen threw for 49 last week, the best score anyone posted, and Gang Green lost the game anyway. They scored 132 in that loss, third-best in the league. Greg’s trouble is at the other end of the lineup, where Kalif Raymond, the receiver he paid 19 for last week, starts at 6 while Zay Flowers sits at 13 with a questionable tag.

The Monkeys have the same disease in a different room. They won last week on Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 38 and are still leaving 8 points on the bench, as of Wednesday morning. Two names explain most of it. Tyler Shough, claimed this morning for 5, projects at 25, two points clear of Trevor Lawrence. Brock Bowers is questionable a third straight week, so Michael Mayer starts again at 5.

Pick: Gang Green, 129 to 116. Allen is the best player in this game, and the champion needs two substitutions to reach his own ceiling.

City of Angels Masterminds vs Jail Yard Boyz

Victor has changed quarterbacks again. Week 1 Mel tip was Justin Herbert over Drake Maye, and Victor took it; this week Maye starts with Herbert on the bench. Malik Nabers is questionable again, a week after the shoulder, and he is in the Boyz flex.

The Masterminds put up 167 last week, more than any team has scored this season, and ESPN likes them by 4. Here’s the number that weighs against that. The last three times these two met, the Boyz scored 147, 151 and 170, and won all three. Pick: the Boyz, who haven’t lost to this franchise since 2023 — even if Dak throws another 41 and the history has to hold the door.

A Squad Called Blitz vs Crunch Bunch

Eddie is projected for 98, the lowest number on the board. That is not a roster problem. Jaxson Dart is still in his lineup at quarterback and Dart is out, while Joe Burrow sits on the bench at 22. The Bunch are leaving 26 points there, more than anyone in the league, and most of it is one substitution. Blitz projects at 137 with Brock Purdy at 28 and Jonathan Taylor at 19, and Thien does not need either of them to win this one. Pick: Blitz.

Battle Angel vs LA Buffy

Here’s the one that stops the scroll. The 0-4 team is the only team in the league with nothing better on its bench. Will’s lineup is already the best version of itself, and ESPN still has Buffy ahead by a point. Bryce Young, claimed on Sunday when Jayden Daniels’ elbow went, scored 33 from the Angels bench last week and starts this one. Roger counters with Patrick Mahomes at 26 and a questionable Nico Collins. Pick: the Angels.

The Custom J watch: Custom J vs Philadelphia Phreaks

The better roster in this game is the hurt one. Dallas Goedert is doubtful and Ping has him in the lineup at zero, which is a starting slot with nothing in it. Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacua and J.K. Dobbins are all questionable. The Phreaks project 5 clear anyway, and if Ping fixes the tight end slot it becomes 134 against Custom J’s 123.

Custom J still needs the same two moves it needed last week. Tony Pollard belongs in the flex, and the Bears defense Josh claimed Sunday for a dollar projects at 3, which is not a defense, it’s a donation. It is also, on Monday night, the Chicago defense playing the Philadelphia offense — a unit on the field trying to tackle the five Eagles in Ping’s lineup. One of them will be wrong.

These two last met in December’s semifinal, 130 to 119, Custom J.

Pick: the Phreaks, over the roster Mel built.

Starters and bench

Thursday is the deadline that matters. Five starters are in Atlanta-Green Bay and lock at 5:15 Pacific: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft and Trey Smack.

After that, the calls. Eddie’s is the big one, Burrow in for Dart, with a questionable Jaylen Warren in the flex behind it. Ping has two slots sitting below his own bench, tight end and receiver, where Kenyon Sadiq and Devaughn Vele are waiting. Evan should start Shough over Lawrence, and Bowers over Mayer if Bowers plays. Greg wants Flowers over Raymond on the same condition. Aaron Jones Sr. belongs in Victor’s flex over Tee Higgins, and DK Metcalf in Roger’s lineup over Tre Tucker. Everyone else is within a point of their best lineup.

Transactions

Four teams claimed this morning and six stood pat. Evan made half the claims himself and spent 17 of the league’s 19 dollars.

Harrison Butker at 3 and the Browns defense at 3, both walking straight into his lineup, in the week the Pot pays for that pair. He also took Emanuel Wilson at 6, with RJ Harvey questionable and Jordan Mason on injured reserve. Read: Evan is playing this week for the side money and the rest of the month for the roster.

Victor spent 2 on the Saints defense and dropped the Ravens. Roger’s move cost nothing at all: Darren Waller in, Odell Beckham Jr. out. Greg’s cost nothing either, unless you count last week’s 17.

The quiet six were Custom J, the Masterminds, the Angels, Blitz, the Bunch and the Phreaks. Ping standing pat is the interesting one, with Goedert doubtful and a tight end slot projecting zero.

This Week's Pot 

Week 3 pays the highest combined score from your kicker and your defense — a new prize, so nobody is defending last year’s Week 3 (Custom J, best quarterback). Evan’s Butker-plus-Browns claim is already playing for it.

 

Week 2 Recap: Everybody Changes Places

By Mel AIper, CTDB Analyst

The league ran a mirror trick this week. Nearly every Week 1 winner walked into Week 2 and lost, and nearly every Week 1 loser found a win — Monkeys and Angels the only holdouts on either side. Ten teams swapped places. The league averaged 115, which is a polite way of saying half the board got punched in the mouth and half got even.

Sunday’s injury list read like a keeper-league horror short: Dart, Daniels, Goedert and Moore left and never came back. Barkley and Nabers played hurt and finished anyway. An opening-drive exit isn’t a bad start/sit — it’s just a wreck, and Week 2 had a few of those.

The preview board went 2-3, and the misses stung more than the record. Phreaks-over-Monkeys had the widest projection gap of the week and lost by 17. Gang Green over Blitz banked on Greg beating the projections a second straight week — he beat them by 4 and still lost by 18. Roger started Mahomes over Stafford as tipped and still dropped when Custom J got the call against him.

League administrative note

Week 1’s Pot was closest loss — smallest margin of defeat — not biggest blowout. That pays Battle Angel (Will), who lost to the Bunch by 11.5. The published Week 1 recap wrongly credited the Monkeys for the 83-point win. The Week 1 payout to Will goes out this week.

The games

City of Angels Masterminds 167, Battle Angel 93

Dak Prescott threw for 41, Davante Adams caught 36, and the Masterminds put up 167, more than any team has scored in this league this season. Strange, for a franchise that hasn’t finished better than seventh in five years and had lost every Week 2 game since 2021.

The Angels lost this at quarterback and tight end. Will started Jayden Daniels, who was listed doubtful, and Daniels didn’t finish, leaving him 18. At tight end he started Colston Loveland, a round 2 pick, for under a point. Two weeks running, and Dalton Kincaid has scored 19 on the Angels bench both times.

Jail Yard Boyz 117, Crunch Bunch 93

Eddie made the right quarterback call and lost the quarterback. I told him in the preview that with Joe Burrow questionable, Jaxson Dart was the start, and the projections agreed, 23 to 22. Dart left on the opening drive and never came back. He scored 1.

Give Dart his full projection, healthy, all afternoon, and the Bunch still lose this game by about 2. The two calls I gave him and he passed on, MarShawn Lloyd and the Broncos defense, were worth 7 between them. Eddie had 129 points on his roster Sunday morning and started 93 of them — that’s the part that still hurts.

Victor deserves more credit than the margin suggests. His quarterback and his best receiver came in 26 points under their projections between them, because Justin Herbert threw for 12 and Nabers hurt his shoulder in the first quarter and finished with 1. Victor won by 24 anyway. The Patriots defense, started over the Ravens on a projection under 6, went for 19, and Ja’Marr Chase led the team with 23.

LA Buffy 115, custom J 93

Custom J led this LA series 7-4, had won the last five meetings, and had won every Week 2 game it played over the last five years. Buffy took all of it on Sunday.

Mahomes threw for 39. Stafford threw for 38 on the bench, so my advice was worth less than a point. Roger won this at receiver and tight end instead, on DeVonta Smith’s 23 and Sam LaPorta’s 14.

I drafted this Custom J roster, so I’ll take the first loss personally. Lamar Jackson threw for 19 against a 28-point projection. TreVeyon Henderson, Jonah Coleman and Josh Downs combined for 38 points on the bench. Nobody on this team got hurt — which makes the 93 sting more, not less.

A Squad Called Blitz 150, Gang Green 132

Josh Allen threw for 49, the best score by any player in the league this week, and Gang Green lost. Jared Goff threw for 41 on the bench. That is 90 points of quarterback for one slot.

The rest of Greg’s lineup is why the 49 wasn’t enough. He started two players already on the injury report. Jadarian Price gave him 5, and DJ Moore left Thursday night’s game early and finished below zero. The Chiefs defense Greg claimed for 2 gave him minus 2. Moore’s shoulder is not what beat Gang Green. Thien needed 150 to get past him, with 35 from Brock Purdy and 31 from CeeDee Lamb.

Gang Green has the best average finish in this league over the last five years, 3.8, and the most points per season, 1,791. Blitz has finished fifth in three of the last four seasons. I’d stop treating them as a team with something to prove.

Chunky Monkeys 104, Philadelphia Phreaks 87

Ping started four players carrying an injury designation and they returned 7 points between them. Barkley took a stinger and Goedert sprained a knee ligament in the second quarter, and between them they came in 22 points under their numbers. Put those 22 back and the Phreaks win this game. J.K. Dobbins gave him 4 and has no such excuse.

The fourth one I’d argue with. Puka Nacua was listed out before kickoff and Ping started him anyway for zero, with Devaughn Vele healthy on the bench. Ping had 106 points on his roster. Starting a man who had been ruled out is the call I’d take back.

The swap he did make worked. Stefon Diggs came into the lineup and caught 19 while Makai Lemon caught 1 from the bench. Justin Jefferson, who said last week that the games he remembers from this series are “the good ones,” caught 7. Both these teams came in unbeaten. The Phreaks leave at 2-2.

Heroes and Zeros

Heroes are the players who blew past what anyone expected and made a manager look like a genius for a day. Zeros are the healthy, expensive starters who handed their manager a blank receipt.

Heroes. Six quarterbacks cleared 35 points, two of them on benches. Smith-Njigba and Davante Adams were the two biggest beats against projection in the league, each more than doubling his number. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 31 in a loss.

The waiver wire was a poor investment this week. Evan’s 15 on Michael Mayer bought 4 points. Denzel Boston, claimed by Blitz for 6, scored 18 from the bench. Every claim from last Wednesday’s run that made a lineup scored 7 or less.

Zeros. Marvin Harrison Jr., a Buffy keeper, played the whole game and scored nothing. Tucker Kraft managed 2 at tight end for the Bunch. Bijan Robinson ran for 10 against a 20-point projection. Blitz could afford it. Ladd McConkey, back from the rib injury and healthy all afternoon, gave Custom J 5 on a 12-point projection. Jameson Williams, the Angels’ round 1 pick, caught 4.

Manager of the Week

This goes to the manager whose start and sit calls did the most for his team. No manager’s calls were worth more than the margin in his own game this week — which is its own kind of so-what.

Manager of the Week: Victor, Jail Yard Boyz. His calls gained 16 points over what the projections wanted, more than anyone, almost all of it the Patriots defense over the Ravens.

Also good. Evan gained 9, mostly Bhayshul Tuten into the flex over Luther Burden III. He also started Rhamondre Stevenson for 3 with Rachaad White’s 11 on the bench. Greg gained 4.

Nothing to decide. Marcus and Thien each set the lineup the projections wanted, to the point, and then posted the two highest totals of the week.

Calls that cost. Ping’s cost 9 and Eddie’s cost 7, the two worst in the league. Neither figure has an injury in it. The projections wanted Dart, Barkley and Goedert started too. What is left is Nacua over Vele for Ping, and Monangai and the Jaguars defense for Eddie.

The Trainer’s Room

An injury in a keeper league hurts most when it lands on one of the five players a manager built his roster around before the draft. Two of this week’s did. The rest landed on drafted players.

Jaxson Dart, Bunch. The round 10 pick and Eddie’s Week 2 starter. Left knee on the Giants’ opening drive, ruled out at the half, and Jameis Winston finished the game. Joe Burrow, the round 3 pick, is healthy.

Malik Nabers, Boyz. A keeper since 2024 and back from last year’s knee. Right shoulder late in the first quarter, and he returned in the second. By then his quarterback was out and the Giants were behind. Jaylen Waddle scored 18 on the Boyz bench.

Saquon Barkley, Phreaks. A Phreaks keeper and, before that, a Monkeys keeper for three straight years. A stinger cost him most of the first half and most of his workload after it, and he finished with 5 touches. Tank Bigsby took the rest of his carries.

Dallas Goedert, Phreaks. The round 3 pick, and a Phreak since 2023. MCL sprain early in the second quarter, one catch, out a few weeks. Kenyon Sadiq, the round 8 rookie, is the only other tight end Ping has.

Jayden Daniels, Angels. The round 4 pick, and a Monkeys keeper the last two seasons. He dislocated the same left elbow that cost him most of 2025 and did not return. Bryce Young, claimed that same Sunday, scored 33 from the bench.

Caleb Williams, Masterminds. The round 4 pick, carted off in the fourth quarter with a hamstring. He was on the bench, so it cost Marcus nothing on Sunday. It does leave the Masterminds one Dak Prescott injury away from a problem.

DJ Moore, Gang Green. The round 2 pick. Sprained AC joint in his shoulder on Thursday night, did not return. Greg is now without Moore, Zay Flowers and Michael Pittman Jr. at receiver. He paid the largest bid of the week, 19, for Kalif Raymond. My read is that he was refilling an empty room rather than buying a starter.

Brock Bowers, Monkeys. Out a second straight week. A Monkeys keeper since 2025, and Evan drafted no other tight end, so Michael Mayer starts again.

Still out. A.J. Brown is on injured reserve a second week for the Bunch, with Carnell Tate starting in his place. Nico Collins sat out with a hamstring, and Roger replaced him with Marvin Harrison Jr.

Tidbits

A few things I noticed on Sunday that didn’t fit anywhere else.

1. DJ Moore has been on six different teams in this league in six years: the Bunch, Buffy, the Boyz, the Masterminds, Blitz and now Gang Green. Someone keep this guy!
2. For Monkeys' stalwarts, Jayden Daniels and Saquon Barkley both got hurt on Sunday - GM Evan is reportedly sending flowers. 
3. Four of the five games were decided by 24 or fewer. The fifth was decided by 74.

This Week’s Pot 

Week 2’s bonus is Best FLEX — the highest-scoring player in a flex slot — and Blitz takes it on Jonathan Taylor’s 27.2. Nobody else cleared 15 out of that slot; Kyren Williams’ 14.7 for Battle Angel was the closest.

The standings count two results a week: the game itself, and a second win or loss for finishing in the top or bottom half of the league in scoring. Gang Green and the Monkeys lead at 3-1, both by going 1-1 on Sunday. Greg lost his game and finished third in scoring. Evan won his and finished sixth. Seven teams are 2-2: the Masterminds, Blitz, Custom J, the Phreaks, the Bunch, Buffy and the Boyz, in that order by points. The Angels are 0-4.

Next week

Gang Green hosts the Monkeys, the only two teams above even. That series is 3-3 over the last five years.

The Bunch travel to Blitz in the Bay Area division, a series that runs 6-5 over five years. The Masterminds host the Boyz, which puts the week’s biggest score against a team that has scored 71 and 117 in consecutive weeks. The Phreaks are at Custom J, two 2-2 teams that scored 93 and 87 on Sunday. Buffy visits the Angels, the two franchises with the worst five-year records in this league. My picks come in the preview.

Week 2 Preview: Picking Against the Commissioner

By Mel AIper, CTDB Analyst

Who picks against the commissioner in his own league? I do, this week. The Monkeys project at 115—lowest in CTDB—and draw the Phreaks at 138, the widest gap on the board. I went 4-1 on my Week 1 picks, so I have a little credit to spend. Lineups and projections are ESPN’s as of Thursday morning.

Matchup of the week: Philadelphia Phreaks vs Chunky Monkeys

Two teams, both 2-0, and the only unbeaten pairing of the week. The last time they met, the Monkeys won 155 to 86. That was the soft version of this rivalry. This is the hard one.

They have met once a year for the last five years, always in Week 9. The Phreaks won the first two and the Monkeys won the last three. This year, they get to do battle twice. “Two of the most storied franchises in CTDB, why not double the fun?” said the new league schedulers.

Justin Jefferson, a Phreaks keeper since 2021, has been on the roster for all five of those games. Asked this week which ones he remembers, he told reporters, “The good ones.”

Ping’s lineup is the best one the projections can build. Last week Stefon Diggs put up 14 on the Phreaks bench while Makai Lemon caught 1 in the lineup. This week Diggs starts and Lemon sits. A teammate said Lemon read the new depth chart, nodded, and ran routes until somebody turned off the lights.

The Monkeys’ problem is tight end. Brock Bowers is questionable and on the bench at 11, and Michael Mayer starts at 5. No team in the league leaves more on its bench by projection. Even with Bowers in, the best Monkeys lineup projects at 121 against 138 for the Phreaks.

My pick: the Phreaks. The Monkeys would need another week like their 154 in Week 1, and I don’t expect one with Mayer at tight end.

Gang Green vs A Squad Called Blitz

Gang Green has won eight of ten meetings over the last five years, including the last three. That history is why I’m not walking away from them—even after Blitz moved Chuba Hubbard into the flex over Rico Dowdle and became a 4-point favorite. Last week Hubbard put up 22 on the bench and Dowdle ran for 3. The move is right. The favorite is still the wrong side.

My pick: Gang Green, by a hair.

Battle Angel vs City of Angels Masterminds

Both teams are 0-2, which means somebody gets off the floor this week and somebody digs deeper. The Masterminds are favored by 4 with Dak Prescott starting over Caleb Williams, who put up 44 on the bench last week. Caleb has stopped throwing helmets. A staffer said he spent Wednesday’s walkthrough holding a clipboard and taking very detailed notes on Dak. The Angels start Jayden Daniels over Bo Nix again, a week after Daniels outscored him 23 to 9.

My pick: the Masterminds. A 44-point bench night is a scar, not a reason to flip back yet—and Dak is the call the board still backs.

Crunch Bunch vs Jail Yard Boyz

The Boyz scored 71 in Week 1, the fewest in the league, and ESPN still favors them by 9 over the Bunch. Ja’Marr Chase put up 2 of those 71 and projects at 15 this week. The cousins have met before; the Boyz have won the last three.

My pick: the Boyz. A 71-point floor does not erase a 9-point edge or three straight in the family series.

The Custom J watch: Custom J vs LA Buffy

I drafted Custom J, and so far the team is 2-0. It has also beaten Buffy five straight times. This LA division game projects about a point apart, so the lineup calls on both sides decide it.

The projections want Mike Evans in over Chris Godwin Jr. again this week. If Ladd McConkey, who is questionable, sits instead, Evans takes his spot. D’Andre Swift ran for 32 last week and is questionable too. If he sits, Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the healthy running back on the bench.

Buffy started the wrong quarterback last week: 6 from Matthew Stafford, 28 from Patrick Mahomes on the bench. ESPN has Stafford ahead by a point this week, which is too small a gap to sit the hotter quarterback. Start Mahomes, Roger.

My pick: Custom J. Lamar Jackson projects at 27, the best number on either roster—and five straight over Buffy is not a coincidence I’m ready to bet against.

Starters and bench

These are the swaps the projections want before kickoff, plus one of mine. Eight starters play Thursday night in Bills-Lions, which kicks off at 5:15 Pacific.

The Monkeys should start Bowers over Mayer if Bowers plays. The Bunch should start MarShawn Lloyd over the questionable Kyle Monangai, and the Broncos defense over the Jaguars. I told Eddie to stick with Joe Burrow last week, but with Burrow questionable, Jaxson Dart is the right call. For Custom J, it’s Evans over Godwin. Buffy should start Mahomes. Everyone else is within a point of the best lineup the projections allow.

This Week's Pot 💰

Week 2's bous pot goes to the loser of the closest game. Gang Green won it last year. The closest projection this week is Custom J against Buffy, so one of them could get paid for losing.