Playoffs: RD2 Preview

Well, that was a hell of a first week of post-season games wasn’t it? All four games were decided by ten points or less, and nearly everyone had a shot going into the late games. In the end, it was an upset win for Dirty Birds over Tiiite End Jammers, and a business-like dispatching of Philadelphia Phreaks by Battle Angels. We were hoping to see some fresh faces in the hunt for the Super Bowl but it seems like this wasn’t the year for Lei and Ping. Now our round one winners face off versus the heavily favored favorites, Chunky Monkeys and Fat Jubas. Let’s take a look.

Chunky Monkeys (10-3) vs Dirty Birds (7-6)
The Birds got a first round win but at a great cost: both Adrian Peterson and Rob Gronkwoski were injured and it looks increasingly like neither will be available for action. Jon’s team was saved by a huge LeSean McCoy performance last week — especially since Andrew Luck and his 43.5 points were on the bench — but it’ll be hard for McCoy to pull that trick off again. Can Peterson and Gronkowski’s replacements (likely Toby Gerhart and Jordan Cameron) help the Birds to another upset? It could be a tall order.

For the Monkeys, a week off was perfect as Calvin Johnson can avoid another snow game, plus Josh Gordon continues to be on absolute fire. And oh look, Giovani Bernard is now getting carries! Will Jamaal Charles still playing strong, Evan has a wealth of stars available. It would be a shock if they can’t get out of the conference finals and into another Super Bowl. An absolute shock. #reversejinx These two teams saw each other three times in a row during the divisional finals from 2007-2009. The Monkeys won the last two matchups (once on a tie-breaker) and they could make it three in a row with a win this weekend. #morereversejinx

Fat Jubas (9-4) vs Battle Angel (8-5)
In a rematch of 2011, Battle Angel faced off versus Fat Jubas coming off a bye in the division playoffs. Eric’s team won in one of the closest and best divisional games of all time, 119.65-117.4, and we’re hoping for a similar affair. Cam Newton versus Drew Brees is obviously the marquee matchup and it looks like Vu will enjoy a minor edge there. The problem is, his running backs are dinged up — Reggie Bush didn’t even play last weekend — while Eric’s Knowshon Moreno and Chris Johnson are guaranteed to play, and to likely play well. Even though BenJarvus Green-Ellis is on a bit of a touchdown streak (three in two games), he has only had three double digit games this year and can’t be counted on as a lead back.

Where does that leave Battle Angel? Well, frankly, it leaves them outmatched. Even the strength of their roster, Andre Johnson, Vernon Davis, and the suddenly hot Brian Hartline pales a bit in comparison to Jubas’ trio of Vincent Jackson, Jimmy Graham, and the man on fire that is Alshon Jeffery. Plus, Eric is possibly electing to go run-and-shoot, subbing in Eric Decker for Chris Johnson, to create even more of a powder keg. What we're saying is that Jubas should be a firm bet to make it to their third Super Bowl in a row, and it’s all looking like a setup for a monster championship game that could (once again) determine the rightful owner of “best franchise ever.” Well, unless Vu’s team wins. Then there will be silence everywhere except in Angel-land.

Toilet Bowl Recap
Over in the high scoring losers round, Athena Nike and Fobsters both pulled off upsets to advance to the Toilet Bowl finals. Athena Nike withstood Peyton Manning's 43.8 point barrage by having Chiefs DEF put up 25 points of their own on the way to a close win over Gang Green. As for Fobsters, they had 21 points from their Cardinals DEF and needed every one of them -- plus Tom Brady's 31 points -- to take out Buffy. Both Jimmy and Frank could use the #1 overall pick, but it was a minor victory just to even get to the Toilet Bowl finals from the underdog positions.

Playoffs: Bye Teams

Let's not leave out the two bye teams this season. Both will be resting this week but they'll have their scouting departments carefully deployed to analyze eventual matchups.

Chunky Monkeys (10-3)
Lets's start with the accolades. Highest scoring team in the league with 118.8 points per game -- an incredible 9.2 more than the next closest PF team. Eleven weeks with 100+ scores. The best RB in the game: Jamaal Charles. The best WR in the game: Calvin Johnson. The hottest WR in the game: Josh Gordon, coming off two 200+ yard efforts. Plus perfectly played FA additions of Torrey Smith, Harry Douglas, and Michael Floyd. All of this amidst major injuries to Julio Jones and Randall Cobb, plus weathering the extreme craptasticness that was Trent Richardson 2.0. Oh, on top of that, a promising rookie running back, Giovani Bernard, unearthed through the draft.

Armed with surging Russell Wilson at the helm, Chunky Monkeys are our favorite. Again. The Monkeys haven't won a championship since 2010, but it looks like their days of being regular season frontrunners / postseason chokers could be over. The league is on high alert: Beware Monkeys! (Sidenote: How did the highest scoring team end up facing the leagues' softest schedule? That's just unfair.)

Fat Jubas (9-4)
Our defending champs are perfectly poised to return to their third Super Bowl in a row. Led once again by Cam Newton and Jimmy Graham, this team is full of familiar faces. Big play threats Vincent Jackson and Eric Decker can now add Alshon Jeffery to the mix, and in what could have been the highest scoring game of all time, Eric had the chance to have two 40+ point WRs starting last week. He still put up 161.7 points in a drubbing of Fobsters but it would have been cool to see him eclipse 200+ points. Chris Johnson has quietly become a dependable top back again, and the story of the season is how Knowshon Moreno eclipsed all expectations and became the #3 ranked RB this year. He more than took over Darren McFadden's role in the lineup and now gives Jubas one of the best RB duos in the land.

Eric's team wasn't too shabby in the century games department either, putting up ten of them this season. Also, they are wrapped up the season on a 7-2 and are clicking at just the right time for a long playoff run. With a strong chance to become the first repeat champion in CTDB, look for Eric to be glued to the television every Sunday in December.

Playoffs: RD1 Preview

Round One is the round of rematches.  Both games were featured last week and we'll see if history wants to repeat itself.

Inscrutable Drama Kings
Tiiite End Jammers (8-5) vs Dirty Birds (7-6)
Jammers versus the Dirty Birds. We welcome both teams back into the playoffs after both missed last year.  For the Birds, Jon's team has had one measly playoff appearance since 2009 while this is Lei's first since 2008.  In fact, Lei has finished with the worst record in the IDK division an embarrassingly four times since 2009.  2013 is a new year. The Jammers are obviously locked and loaded and represent one of the top three teams in the league this year. With one of the deepest receiving cores, the Jammers have two of the top six receivers this year with Demaryius Thomas and Antonio Brown. On top of that, Pierre Garcon is a top fifteen receiver to boot.  A solid run game is led by Demarco Murray and anchoring the number two scoring offense this year is the the #3 ranked QB this season, Matt Stafford -- who was a free agent pick up! The Jammers are just a solid team evidenced by their current six game winning streak punctuated by four straight weeks of 100+ points.

On the flip side, the Dirty Birds are a model of inconsistency.  With their longest winning streak at three games, Jon has scored under 90 points four times as they've stumbled through the year. The Birds' starting roster is littered with glittering stars like Gronk, Fitzgerald, LeSean McCoy and of course, Dirty Bird stalwart, All-Day Peterson.  However, the maddeningly inconsistent play of Matt Ryan and other fringe starters like Kendall Wright and rookie disappointment Tavon Austin have made the Birds one of the least dependable teams in the league. Also, was Jordan Cameron just a shooting star? Sure looks like it.

These two teams have already met twice this year with a match up just last week where the Birds lost by 20+ points.  The Jammers are consistent and on a roll -- scoring 121 in both match ups -- and we think the Jammers will take this one again.
Predicted Score: 121 to 105

Spunky Misunderstood Geniuses
Battle Angel (8-5) vs Philadelphia Phreaks (7-6)
This is a repeat of last year as well as last week. Last postseason, the Phreaks ran into the Angels in the wildcard round in 2012 and blew them out early. The Phreaks destroyed the Angels with a 40+ point beat down. This year may be different as home field advantage has swapped.  The Angels started off the season mediocre but ended up back on top, anchored by veteran players like Drew Brees and Andre Johnson. Starting running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas are not your typical bruising backs but both are top fifteen backs this year. While Johnson continues to be a top flight receiver, the Angels need their TE, Vernon Davis to score big if they are to have any chance. Interesting tidbit: this team is one of the most top heavy in the league, with Brees, Johnson, Bush, and Davis being the only players to contribute more than 4.5 average points per game.

As for the Phreaks, it's all about the youngsters. A surprising Nick Foles -- there's quite a bit of intrigue whether the Phreaks will stay with Foles or RGIII next year -- combined with super rookie Keenan Allen and an improving T.Y. Hilton really have the Phreaks in a strong position. Even losing Doug Martin and Steven Jackson to injuries, plus Justin Blackmon to multiple suspensions, hasn't slowed the Phreaks down too much. Marshawn Lynch cemented his status as a franchise caliber running back and old stalwart DeSean Jackson finished just outside the top ten receiving ranks. GM Ping was forced to adjust his roster on the fly a lot this season, but the results have been very good, with plenty of free agent success stories and a roster filled with both promise and competitiveness.

The Phreaks have won both H2H matchups this year but enter the matchup in quite a slump with a three game losing streak while Battle Angel is currently riding a very strong 5-1 winning streak. Could this be a vulnerable week for the Phreaks?
Predicted Score: Phreaks over the Angels, 110-87

Toilet Bowl Matchups

Another regular season in the books! Let's talk Toilet Bowl before we move onto the playoffs. Remember, we reseed for the Toilet Bowl. Okay, let's find out who'll get next year's #1 pick! [2012 Toilet Bowl preview]

#1 Gang Green (6-7) vs #4 Athena Nike (2-11)
Gang Green was just one win short of the playoffs and actually was the highest scoring team in Spunky Misunderstood — and second overall. After coming out of the gates 1-3, they found themselves at 0.500 by WK8 but then stumbled to three losses in their last five games to slide out of the postseason. All of this with the otherworldly Peyton Manning at the helm. Manning had four 40+ point games this season, a 64.9 point WK1 showing, and was far and away the best fantasy player at 35.4 points per game. On top of that, Brandon Marshall was a top five WR and for most of the season Frank Gore approximated the numbers of a low end #1 RB. Unfortunately, that’s about it for the stuff that went right.

Mike Wallace and Hakeem Nicks got a lot of playing time and they each had a few moments but neither were consistent contributors. TE Julius Thomas could actually be quite the find, but he's been suffering from injuries of late. Stevan Ridley returned from early season injury to provide temporary relief in the backfield for a few games but he’s fallen off again. And it’s an extreme understatement to say that Greg’s top draft pick, David Wilson, was a total bust as he only contributed -2.1 points on the season. The silver lining for this team is that they won the Toilet Bowl last season and are favored to do so again. Gang Green hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2009, when they snuck into the playoffs with a 5-8 record but upset their way to a Super Bowl win. Unfortunately, they won't have that chance this year.

As for Ante Up aka Athena Nike, aka Frank who refuses to change his franchise's name on ESPN, it’s been a horrific first season as owner. They started off 1-5, lost their last six regular season games, and their two wins were against 4-9 Buffy and 4-9 Fobsters. With a roster that was bursting with talent pre-season, Athena Nike totally collapsed when it came time to strap on the helmets. The failures started from the top with Aaron Rodgers, who was mostly lukewarm this year until he started heating up, only to fall victim to injury. In fact, his backup, Philip Rivers, led Athena Nike in points scored, even if Rivers managed to pick up no wins as an Athena man.

The three headed rushing attack of Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, and Alfred Morris was a who’s who of disappointments as Rice and Spiller were both huge busts this season, and Morris hasn’t broken twenty points in a game yet this season. And he’s been the good one! Forced to juggle receivers all season long due to Roddy White’s injury, Frank was able to rely on Cecil Shorts and Steve Smith, while adding in a dash of Emmanuel Sanders and Jordan Reed, but none of these guys would be described as game changers. On top of all those disappointments, Athena Nike got smashed by easily the toughest schedule in the league, and since they were the lowest scoring team, they ended up with a PF/PA differential of -34.6 points per game. Basically Frank just wants this season to be over. And it should be soon.

#2 LA Buffy (4-9) vs #3 Fobsters (4-9)
Coming off two glorious seasons, Roger didn’t expect his team to collapse quite so fast. Buffy only suffered ten regular season losses the last three years combined but racked up nine just this season. They haven’t had a losing season since 2008 and it seems like this was just a down year for our three time champions. It was brutal to finish the season 1-6 though, so hopefully can turn around quickly here. A Toilet Bowl win could be a nice panacea to a painful year for Roger.

The lone bright spot from Buffy’s horrific season was Matt Forte, who averaged 18.1 points on his way to being a top two ranked RB. His backfield mate, Arian Foster, lost out on major IPO money and also only posted three double digit games before getting his season wiped out from injury. Roger also lost Reggie Wayne around mid-season, although that injury didn’t hurt too much, as A.J. Green, Wes Welker, and Victor Cruz were an ideal three man unit. It would have been nice if Danny Amendola stepped in there somehow, but we all know how Amendola’s health has been. A minor surprise was the work of Ryan Mathews, who has been semi-decent this year, although he only got into a few games for Buffy, and wasn’t of much use. Eli Manning was erratic all season, and the QB position wasn’t one of much strength, and perhaps Ben Roethlisberger could have been inserted into the lineup more often. At the end of the day, Buffy has a shot for a high draft pick, and that could salvage his disappointing season.

As for the Fobsters, they've been horrible since the beginning of the year and they lost the H2H seeding matchup to Buffy but could be better positioned to take a Toilet Bowl win. Sure they finished off the year 1-4 but they’ve also had some explosive moments this season — as evidenced by 135.3 points in WK8 and 127.8 points in WK12. Jimmy’s team had three and a two half standout players this season. Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson were top ten-ish WRs, rookie Eddie Lacy has proved to be a bonafide fantasy star, and the juggling act of Tom Brady and Tony Romo worked out pretty well. After those guys though, the roster dropped off pretty fast.

Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Gates, Zac Stacy, Kenbrell Thompkins, Joique Bell, Lamar Miller, and Doug Baldwin were all erratic and/or disappointments. None of them contributed more than 66.7 points (Bowe) to Fobsters’ bottom line. With a roster that bereft of depth, it was no wonder Jimmy’ squad suffered the second lowest PF and will go into the yet another Toilet Bowl. It wasn’t that long ago — 2011 on a 6-7 record — that Fobsters were in the playoffs, with a good offseason, they could be back again. First step: Take out Buffy. Second step: Stop sucking.

Final Standings 2013

Full Standings Breakdown