Week 2 Preview: Picking Against the Commissioner

By Mel AIper, CTDB Analyst

Who picks against the commissioner in his own league? I do, this week. The Monkeys project at 115—lowest in CTDB—and draw the Phreaks at 138, the widest gap on the board. I went 4-1 on my Week 1 picks, so I have a little credit to spend. Lineups and projections are ESPN’s as of Thursday morning.

Matchup of the week: Philadelphia Phreaks vs Chunky Monkeys

Two teams, both 2-0, and the only unbeaten pairing of the week. The last time they met, the Monkeys won 155 to 86. That was the soft version of this rivalry. This is the hard one.

They have met once a year for the last five years, always in Week 9. The Phreaks won the first two and the Monkeys won the last three. This year, they get to do battle twice. “Two of the most storied franchises in CTDB, why not double the fun?” said the new league schedulers.

Justin Jefferson, a Phreaks keeper since 2021, has been on the roster for all five of those games. Asked this week which ones he remembers, he told reporters, “The good ones.”

Ping’s lineup is the best one the projections can build. Last week Stefon Diggs put up 14 on the Phreaks bench while Makai Lemon caught 1 in the lineup. This week Diggs starts and Lemon sits. A teammate said Lemon read the new depth chart, nodded, and ran routes until somebody turned off the lights.

The Monkeys’ problem is tight end. Brock Bowers is questionable and on the bench at 11, and Michael Mayer starts at 5. No team in the league leaves more on its bench by projection. Even with Bowers in, the best Monkeys lineup projects at 121 against 138 for the Phreaks.

My pick: the Phreaks. The Monkeys would need another week like their 154 in Week 1, and I don’t expect one with Mayer at tight end.

Gang Green vs A Squad Called Blitz

Gang Green has won eight of ten meetings over the last five years, including the last three. That history is why I’m not walking away from them—even after Blitz moved Chuba Hubbard into the flex over Rico Dowdle and became a 4-point favorite. Last week Hubbard put up 22 on the bench and Dowdle ran for 3. The move is right. The favorite is still the wrong side.

My pick: Gang Green, by a hair.

Battle Angel vs City of Angels Masterminds

Both teams are 0-2, which means somebody gets off the floor this week and somebody digs deeper. The Masterminds are favored by 4 with Dak Prescott starting over Caleb Williams, who put up 44 on the bench last week. Caleb has stopped throwing helmets. A staffer said he spent Wednesday’s walkthrough holding a clipboard and taking very detailed notes on Dak. The Angels start Jayden Daniels over Bo Nix again, a week after Daniels outscored him 23 to 9.

My pick: the Masterminds. A 44-point bench night is a scar, not a reason to flip back yet—and Dak is the call the board still backs.

Crunch Bunch vs Jail Yard Boyz

The Boyz scored 71 in Week 1, the fewest in the league, and ESPN still favors them by 9 over the Bunch. Ja’Marr Chase put up 2 of those 71 and projects at 15 this week. The cousins have met before; the Boyz have won the last three.

My pick: the Boyz. A 71-point floor does not erase a 9-point edge or three straight in the family series.

The Custom J watch: Custom J vs LA Buffy

I drafted Custom J, and so far the team is 2-0. It has also beaten Buffy five straight times. This LA division game projects about a point apart, so the lineup calls on both sides decide it.

The projections want Mike Evans in over Chris Godwin Jr. again this week. If Ladd McConkey, who is questionable, sits instead, Evans takes his spot. D’Andre Swift ran for 32 last week and is questionable too. If he sits, Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the healthy running back on the bench.

Buffy started the wrong quarterback last week: 6 from Matthew Stafford, 28 from Patrick Mahomes on the bench. ESPN has Stafford ahead by a point this week, which is too small a gap to sit the hotter quarterback. Start Mahomes, Roger.

My pick: Custom J. Lamar Jackson projects at 27, the best number on either roster—and five straight over Buffy is not a coincidence I’m ready to bet against.

Starters and bench

These are the swaps the projections want before kickoff, plus one of mine. Eight starters play Thursday night in Bills-Lions, which kicks off at 5:15 Pacific.

The Monkeys should start Bowers over Mayer if Bowers plays. The Bunch should start MarShawn Lloyd over the questionable Kyle Monangai, and the Broncos defense over the Jaguars. I told Eddie to stick with Joe Burrow last week, but with Burrow questionable, Jaxson Dart is the right call. For Custom J, it’s Evans over Godwin. Buffy should start Mahomes. Everyone else is within a point of the best lineup the projections allow.

This Week's Pot 💰

Week 2's bous pot goes to the loser of the closest game. Gang Green won it last year. The closest projection this week is Custom J against Buffy, so one of them could get paid for losing.