Who's In, Who's Out

Inscrutable Drama Kings Division

What We Know: This late in the season, bunch of seats are usually up for grabs but we have unusual clarity going into this last week. Buffy has locked up the top seed with a first week bye (probably did that like two weeks ago) while the Monkeys will be playing Ante Up in the first round of the playoffs.  The Monkeys are clearly peaking and will look to carry that momentum over against a depleted Ante Up team who will barely eek out a win this week despite scoring less than 80 points.

What We Don’t Know: Not much. The seeding might change between the Monkeys and Ante Up but besides draft positioning, there’s little that matters here. The Dirty Birds might’ve figured into the playoff picture but a loss to the Phreaks in Week 12 knocked them out of the race.


Spunky Misunderstood Geniuses Division

What We Know: This is where the story gets saucy. We know that the Jubas, Phreaks (the Phreaks?!), and the Battle Angels are all in.  Gang Green and Fobsters are now just trying to figure out draft order.

What We Don’t Know: Who gets first round bye? The Jubas had a stranglehold on the top seed until a two game slide really put  them in a pickle. We know the top spot will go either to the Phreaks or the Jubas at this point.  Depending on how much the Phreaks score tonight with Brown and Jackson, the two could be neck and neck in terms of points scored entering week 13 (points scored will be the tie break between the two as they are even in head to head and overall record).  Both the Jubas and Phreaks are playing struggling IDK teams and so both have a shot at winning which means this will come down to points scored in Week 13. The Battle Angels will be the third team in the playoffs.

Playoff Push: Spunky Misunderstood Geniuses

Three weeks left in the regular season and let's take a quick look at where everyone is headed shall we? The playoff spots are pretty much locked in on the Spunky Misunderstood Geniuses division but there's an outside chance for a wild card battle over in Inscrutable Drama Kings. Let's go!

Fat Jubas (7-3)
Already matching their win total from last season with seven victories, Eric's team is poised to double up in division crowns. They have a team game lead and is the highest scoring team in Spunky Misunderstood Geniuses by a wide margin. After shooting out of the gate with four wins, they stumbled a bit before recovering with another three win streak. With Cam Newton a bit shaky this season, much of the heavy lifting has been on the deep speed of Vincent Jackson, Eric Decker, and Torrey Smith. Chris Johnson is finally back but there is literally non one behind him as Darren McFadden is still hurt and nobody else has stepped up. The good news is that the incredible Bears defense has been a huge advantage and are one of the primary reasons for Eric's march to the top this season. The big question will be if the Fat Jubas can avenge last year's Super Bowl loss to Buffy…

Philadelphia Phreaks (5-5)
Last year this team had only four wins total but now they are poised to enter the playoffs. In fact, Ping's squad is a little bit on fire. Four century games and four wins from weeks six through nine, and also home to the new belle of the fantasy ball: Doug Martin. Having rookies Martin and Robert Griffin III on board has rejuvenated this franchise and they are dark horse contenders, perhaps for the first time in their history. RB Marshawn Lynch has been a top six performer and if DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, and Jeremy Maclin can inject some explosiveness to the air game, the fans in Phreak land could have a lot to celebrate soon. We wish Justin Blackmon had emerged some this season, as that could be one of the best QB-RB-WR rookie classes in CTDB history. Still, what a haul!

Battle Angel (5-5)
Vu's team got into second place in this division despite being under 0.500 and it's possible they -- or someone else -- could do it again. They have righted the ship by going 3-1 in recent weeks and will now let Drew Brees lead them to the post-season. It's troubling that Brees has nobody supporting him, as the rest of the roster is devoid of firepower. For example, young Andre Roberts is leading a WR corps in points, despite having Andre Johnson, Sidney Rice, and Mike Williams around -- and Greg Jennnings out. It's true that Rice has come into his own again recently but not one of these receivers has cracked the top twenty at their position. Same thing with the running backs. Fred Jackson and DeAngelo Williams have not been the answer. Still, Brees has clearly been good enough to get this team to five wins and Vu is will see how far he can get in the playoffs with almost literally no running game.

Gang Green (3-7)
This team is in freefall. After mustering only five wins last year, the Greenies are headed toward a similar fate this season. All this after winning the championship in 2009. Has Greg finally lost the magic touch? With a five game losing streak this year, it's possible. The good news is that while one Manning brother (Eli) has slumped, the other has been outright amazing recently. Brandon Marshall has also been a revelation, reunited with Jay Cutler. He the second best WR this year, by a wide margin. Frank Gore has had a bounce back year too, and Stevan Ridley has totally eclipsed sad sacks Ahmad Bradshaw and Shonn Greene. And Steve Johnson and Hakeem Nicks should be fine as the second and third receivers -- if healthy. Here's the kicker: during that five week losing streak, Gang Green faced century opponents each time, and four of those games were against opponents who scored 120+ or better. Heck, Greg even lost 137.2 - 137.8 to Chunky Monkeys in WK5, likely our closest and highest scoring matchup ever. That's something to hang his hat on, right?

Fobsters (3-7)
Jimmy's squad snuck into the playoffs last year with a losing record but a 0-3 cold open following by their current four game losing streak has dashed this year's post-season hopes. Much like the Battle Angels, this team has one star quarterback - Tom Brady -- and a bunch of lesser lights. Willis McGahee and Michael Turner are erratic at best, and McGahee hasn't even played much for Fobsters. Losing Jordy Nelson to injury has hurt a lot, and while Dwayne Bowe, Steve Smith, Antonio Gates, and Dez Bryant have had their explosive games, they're hardly sure things week to week.  The Fobsters made a surprise run to the Super Bowl in 2010, so they've had some success recently. Perhaps they can get back to those glory days with a Toilet Bowl win, as a way to salvage another lost season?

Playoff Push: Inscrutable Drama Kings

Buffy (9-1)
To be honest, it would be tough to stomach a year where Buffy came off a championship and then went undefeated during the next season. That dystopia came very close to happening. After ripping off nine wins, it took a Herculean WK10 from Chunky Monkeys just to stop the streak. Whew! Buffy has been this year's top scoring team, gone over the century mark every week save one, and features the best RB and WR in the game: Arian Foster and A.J. Green. On top of that, there's a ton of depth with Matt Forte, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, and Miles Austin. Quarterback could be a semi-weakness, but really, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton have been good enough all year. So, Roger is poised to become the first back-to-back CTDB champion ever. Who's scared?

Ante Up (6-4)
Ante Up was second place in this division last year and they're headed toward the same fate this year. Clearly they have regular season success on lock with Aaron Rodgers, Ray Rice, and LeSean McCoy leading the way. However, Ante Up can be a bit erratic as they've been subject to a crop of receivers that are serviceable but tend to be a bit up and down. James Jones, Denarius Moore, Brandon Lloyd, and Lance Moore are mainly B-level WRs but as a fleet, they should be good enough to get Jae's team to the conference finals. The question is if they'll be able to fight through and get some post-season success this year. This top heavy team is too good not to challenge for a championship soon.

Chunky Monkeys (5-5)
After failing to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last season, the Monkey are poised to return, albeit as a lower seed. Surprisingly, the traditional strong ground game has been eclipsed by the passing game of Matthew Stafford, Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, and Julio Jones. But it's not like the running game has disappeared completely. Trent Richardson and Jamaal Charles are both in the top dozen overall RBs -- although Charles has faded badly recently. Ryan Mathews is proving not to be a franchise caliber player, and he will now cede top back of the future status to Richardson, who looks like a genuine stud. Evan's team is on a streak of three century games -- and just ruined Buffy's undefeated season -- so he's building good steam for a post-season upset or two.

Dirty Birds (4-6)
We've already documented the travails of the Dirty Birds this season. Great on paper, terrible in reality. Matt Ryan and the passing game are fantastic, with Roddy White, Rob Gronkowski, and Tony Gonzalez all performing as top ten WR/TEs, and Adrian Peterson has been hot like fire recently. Despite all that, Jon only has an outside shot of making the playoffs -- if they can keep winning. It's safe to say that this season has been disappointing after management began the year with championship aspirations. The Birds have gone over 100+ in each of the last five weeks but that has only resulted in three wins. Tough times. The trade lines are humming as the Dirty Birds contemplate their future.

Tiiite End Jammers (3-7)
After going 5-8 last year and dwelling in the cellar, Lei could repeat that performance this year. Four straight losses from weeks six through nine doomed them. There's an ultra strong receiving group here with Percy Harvin, Marques Colston, and Demaryius Thomas, but the lack of a ground game has weakened Lei's offensive attack. DeMarco Murray, Reggie Bush, and the injured Maurice Jones-Drew haven't cut it. Despite contributing the most points so far at the QB position, the Jammers just cut Ben Roethlisberger, clearing the way for Tony Romo to start again. After a mid-season slump, Romo has posted 20+ points in four of his last five games so he'll stabilize the team post-Big Ben. If they pull it together fast, the Jammers can aim for a rousing victory in the upcoming Toilet Bowl!

Freefalling

After coming off an uplifting 8-5 season last year, the Birds were hoping to aim high and push toward true contention.  Instead they've sunk to 1-3 amid a combination of horrible decisions and lineup changes.

During WK1, they lost 98.65 to 129.95 against Ante Up, with Adrian Peterson and his 21.2 points on the bench.  Then Coach Jon sat Larry Fitzgerald down for WK3, losing out on his 21.9 points while losing the Chunky Monkeys.  And that all culminated in last week's beatdown, where despite scoring 132.75 points, the Birds got pummeled by defending champion Buffy, who put up a rocking 151.30 points.  With every opponent over 100+ so far, and facing a Points Against that is 18+ more points than any other team in the league, the Dirty Birds are floundering.

This is despite the top QB in the game (Matt Ryan), a top two WR (Roddy White), a top three TE (Rob Gronkowski), and four RBs ranked in the top fourteen.  Heck, they even picked up Tony Gonzalez, the current top TE. With the Falcons defense also on board, the Dirty Birds are doing a Philly Phreaks strategy apparently.  However, all these gaudy numbers are still leaving them short of victories.  With steady rookie Andrew Luck waiting in the wings, is it time to blow up this team already?

Fans of the Dirty Birds are confused, even as the real life Atlanta Falcons are crushing the competition. Where's the magic for their comparable fantasy team?

Grading the 2012 Draft

It's a bit over due but another season has kicked off and its time to take a look at the draft that was.

1. Philadelphia Phreaks
Its rebuilding season and the Phreaks didn't putz around on this one. With 6 rookies taken with their first 7 picks, GM Ping has decided that now was the time to kick start the youth movement. This draft class is headlined with leading rookie including Doug Martin, RGIII and Justin Blackmon. The Phreaks rounded out their rosters with targeted picks of Brian Quick, Ronnie Hilman and Alshon Jeffrey. Sandwiched between all these rookies was Steven Jackson who was an absolute steal in the second round. It's too early to tell how many of these rookies will pan out but the Phreaks would be ecstatic if they could find 2 keepers here. Early read is that Martin and RGIII are already coming on as strong starters with Blackmon showing flashes of brilliance.
Best pick: RGIII - he's blown the door off first the two weeks. 
Draft Grade: B+ 

2. Tiiite End Jammers
The Jammers came into the draft looking to shore up his starting lineup. Kicking off his draft with Demarco Murray and Antonio Brown (two former Chunky Monkeys!), the Jammers found instant starters for their 2012 lineup. Reggie Bush, Kenny Britt and Malcolm Floyd form a solid bench core. The Jammer's draft seemed to be built around "best player available" while drafting to build a roster with depth all around. We like the Jammer's draft and think they've gotten better top to bottom.
Best Pick: Its hard to argue against Demarco Murray but Kenny Britt could be a huge steal. 
Draft Grade: A- 

3. Gang Green
The Greenies went veteran with picks like Frank Gore, Peyton Manning, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin headlining their draft. Hernandez and Crabtree rounded out the experience laden draft. Marshall and Gore, taken with the first two picks, are immediate starters. Gang Green also plucked out Stevan Ridley and Michael Crabtree late - both are looking like excellent values. Its also worth noting that Greg decided to pair up the Manning brothers with Peyton backing up Eli.
Best Pick: Marshall. Even if he's a nutcase, we think he's a top 7 WR this year. 
Draft Grade: A- 

4. Fobsters
The Fobsters led off their draft with the selection of Dwayne Bowe and Antonio Gates. After shoring up their receiving core, the Fobsters went heavy on running backs and drafted 4 straight backs including Donald Brown, Peyton Hillis, W. McGahee, and Ced Benson. We don't love any of these backs from a keeper perspective but there will be at least one or two serviceable backs for this year. One interesting note is that the Fobsters chose not to draft a back up QB for Tom Brady and instead decided to load up on the position players.
Best Pick: Antonio Gates 
Draft Grade: C+ 

5. Battle Angels
Vu seemingly auto-drafted from his villa in Hawaii with some head scratching picks in this year's draft. Headlined by the a first round selection of James Starks who hasn't played a down this year, the Angels followed that pick with the drafting of Robert Meachem, Ryan Williams, and Mike Williams (no longer on the roster). None of the top 4 picks have contributed meaningfully from a fantasy perspective. On the flip side, Vu did save the best for last. Late round picks of DeAngelo Williams and Sidney Rice could be tremendous values and could help save the draft but neither has contributed meaningfullly. Schaub has looked like a nice back-up but will unlikely ever surpass Brees in the start QB slot. All in all, this looked like one of the worst draft efforts by GM Vu in recent years. We hold out hope that guys like Meachem, DW and Sidney could still have value but as of now, the team has little outside of Brees, VD and an aging Andre Johnson.
Best Pick: DeAngelo Williams 
Draft Grade: F 

6. Chunky Monkeys
Coming off their first ever season where the team was left off the playoff train, the Monkeys stormed through the inaugural toilet bowl and ended up winning the first overall pick which was parlayed into Trent Richardson. Time will tell if Richardson will end up a keeper in front of Ryan Mathews or Jamaal Charles. Backing up Richardson was Garcon who flew out of the gates in Week 1 before summarily getting hurt. When healthy Garcon seems to be the perfect WR3 behind Megatron and Jones. Roles players including Kevin Smith, Reggie Wayne, Denarius Moore and Brandon LaFell all are unlikely to see the starting roster but all have shown promise. Most importantly, GM Evan made it a point to bring Philip Rivers back in the fold for team morale.
Best Pick: Trent Richardson 
Draft Grade: B 

7. Ante Up 
Already loaded up with the likes of A-Rod, LeSean and Ray Rice, GM Jae was looking to load up on the receivers side. Using 5 of the first 7 picks on receivers, Ante Up certainly went heavy on the passing game. Brandon Lloyd has yet to blow up looks on the verge. Jermichael Finley, Nate Washington and Amendola have all had their moments but aren't starting materials yet. On the running side, Wilson and Tate are high upside backs that require an injury before being able to make an impact - perfect fits for a team already loaded with running talent.
Best Pick - Brandon Lloyd 
Draft Grade: B+ 

8. Dirty Birds 
Similar to Ante Up, the Birds came in loaded with skill position players but needed a QB to lead the ship. With one of the worst draft secrets leading up to the draft, GM Jon executed as promised spending the first two picks on young QBs that look ready to lead the franchise. Matt Ryan (first round) and Andrew Luck (second round) both already look like keeper materials. The Birds then took a few pot shots to round out their bench with the drafting of Daniel Thomas, Toby Gerhart, CJ Spiller, Robert Turnbin and Isiah Pead. We like the Birds' depth at running back but are slightly concerned with the lack of bench talent at the receiver position. With only Kendall Wright and David Nelson as qualified back ups (Nelson is also now injured for the year), the Birds are running extremely thin at WR.
Best Pick: CJ Spiller 
Draft Grade: B- 

9. Fat Jubas 
The Jubas were already loaded and they knew it. Eric Decker and Torrey Smith look like terrific picks so far. Third round pick, Rashad Jennings, is good insurance behind MJD (the potential holdout never happened but Jennings is still a terrific insurance policy). The Jubas rounded out their rosters with the selections of Witten, Law Firm, Greg Little and Jaquizz Rodgers. We like the blend of upside (Rodgers and Little) with experience (Witten and Law Firm).
Best Pick: Torrey Smith 
Draft Grade: A- 

10. Buffy 
When you're the reigning champion, you usually don't have many holes. This was the case with Buffy and so they went immediately to starting positions with early selections of Defense (49ers in the 2nd and Texans in the 4th) as well as Gostkowski as early as the 5th round. Buffy did add to his skill position arsenal with the drafting of Miles Austin who has starter material written all over him as well as Titus Young and Jonathan Stewart. Buffy did gamble somewhat by waiting on his starting quarterback. However, we're confident that either Flacco or Cutler will pan out this year.
Best Pick: Miles Austin 
Draft Grade: B